Nov 8
/
Ignacio Espinola
Post-WASDE Monthly Report - 2024 11 08
CORN: Neutral
Contrary to what the market was expecting, the November WASDE report has corrected the expected yield from 183.8 bu/acre to 183.1 bu/acre (11.49 Mt/ha versus prev. 11.54 Mt/ha) resulting in a decrease in the over all production number to a final 15.143 M bu vs previous 15.203 M bu (384.63 M mt versus previous 386.16 M mt) which is still a very good crop. This is a result after the last recent weather events in US, where they have had dry weather. If this numbers get confirmed, this would be the third biggest US corn crop ever.
On the South America side, there are, again, not so many changes. Brazilian exports got adjusted by 1 M mt to a final 48 M mt which gets off settled by an increase of 1 M mt in the local consumption for a final number of 83.5 M mt.
Finally, on China, the import numbers got decreased from 19 M mt to 16 M mt, showing a decrease Y-o-Y of 32% on imports, previous year number was 23.4 M mt.
SOYBEAN: Neutral
Similar story than what happened with corn, and also against expectations, where the dry weather experienced in the US has decreased the yield on soybean too, with a reduction of 2.6% M-o-M, from 53.1 bu/acre to 51.7 bu/acre (3.57 Mt/ha to 3.48 Mt/ha). This reflects in a reduction of the total production of the same percentage, 2.6%, leaving the final number at 4.461 M bu (prev. 4.582 M bu) / 121.4 M mt from prev. 124.7 M mt.
The rest of the other countries did not get any major change from the WASDE.
Wheat: Neutral
Last but not least, wheat. The WASDE report fine tuned a few numbers with an adjustment in the Russian crop from 82 M mt to 81.5 M mt as well as the Argentinean crop from 18 M mt to 17.5 M mt as the most relevant ones.
Written by Ignacio Espinola
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thais Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
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