Dec 10
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Ignacio Espinola
Post-WASDE Monthly Report - 2024 12 10
Corn - Neutral/bullish
For corn, the report ranged from neutral to bullish. In the US, there was an increase in export numbers (from 59.06 to 62.87 mmt) and domestic consumption (from 321.7 to 322.98 mmt). As a result, there was a reasonable cut in ending stocks (49.23 to 44.15 mmt). On the South American side, there were no changes, with the USDA maintaining the trend of full production in Brazil and Argentina. For the other countries, there were small cuts in final stocks. As a result, in the global numbers there was a cut in ending stocks (from 304.14 to 296.44 mmt), supported mainly by the cut in US stocks.
Soybean - Neutral
For soybeans, the report was fairly neutral, as expected. There were no changes to the numbers for the 2024/25 season in the USA. On the South American side, Brazil's production number was also maintained (169 mmt), while Argentina's production expectations were raised from 51 to 52 mmt. We believe that these numbers keep Brazil's and Argentina's crops within reality, with positive weather maintaining the potential for full production. With regard to Chinese imports, there were no changes (109 mmt). Finally, world stocks for 2024/25 rose slightly from 131.74 to 131.87 mmt, still keeping stocks at record levels.
Wheat - Neutral
This last WASDE report for wheat did not bring any major changes. The biggest one came from the Black Sea region where the Russian export numbers got a 1 mmt reduction from 48 mmt to 47 mmt, a 2% adjustment that impacts the ending stocks, increasing them to a final 8.24 mmt, a 10% stock use (Previous 8%). On the Ukrainian side, there was an adjustment of 0.5 mmt in the export numbers, increasing them up to 16.5 mmt which decreased the ending stock from 0.99 mmt to 0.79 mmt, leaving a stock use of only 3%. The rest of the world did not suffer any major change.
Written by Ignacio Espinola
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Luiz Fernando Roque
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
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