Nov 7 / Ignacio Espinola

Pre-WASDE Monthly Report - 2024 11 07

CORN: Neutral

Recent weather events seem not to have had much impact in the production expectation for the WASDE report. US ¨only¨ adjustment seems to come from the ending stocks, with a reduction of 2 M mt on the media of the estimations, from 52.2 M mt to 50.8 M mt.

On the South American side, again, no major changes are expected as per the market surveys. Even though there were some dry weather that could have created an issue in the SAM crop, recent rains have erased any harmful effect. Right now Brazil has a 72% planted versus prev. year at 77% planted which means than the gap that we saw a few weeks ago is getting closer.

SOYBEAN: Neutral

On the Soybean last month weather event seem not to have affected the production expectation for US and for South America the delay on the planting pace has ended and now the crops are back to normal planting levels with no apparent damage for the crop. Right now Brazil has a 53% planted versus prev. year at 47% planted which means than the delay has already been solved and this year they are planting on an even faster pace. All that being said, it does seem like there will be no adjustment for South America while for the US we could see some small adjustment on the Ending Stocks. It will be interesting to see what WASDE prints for this number as China has been very active on the beans market, buying more than usual. Over the last 10 months China has imported 90 M mt, that is an increase of 11% versus previous year. If they continue at this pace, they could have their biggest import year ever, exceeding 2020 where they imported 100 M mt.

Wheat:  Bullish

Wheat market continues to receive bad news, specially for Europe crop but it does not seem like the adjustment is going to be made this month. The only expectation in the market is a slight reduction on the world stock which means that either the ending stock number is already taking into consideration the Europe bad crop, or it does mean that the USDA wants to wait and confirm some numbers before they come up with a statement. Regardless of which argument is the one they are using; we are not going to expect major changes for wheat this month.

Written by Ignacio Espinola
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thais Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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