Dec 9
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Ignacio Espinola
Pre-WASDE Monthly Report - 2024 12 09
Soybean: Neutral
After the surprising cuts in production and stocks (higher than expected) for the 2024/25 US season in the November report, no major changes are expected for the US numbers in the December report. Despite this, we are likely to see an increase in the export estimate for soyoil, since export records already exceed the current projection (by 46%). This should lead to lower oil stocks, but it shouldn't be enough to change the direction of the market. On the South American side, we believe that the production numbers for Brazil and Argentina are within the bounds of reality, in line with the good climate for crop development so far. As such, we don't expect any significant changes in the numbers for South America either.
Corn: Neutral
As with soybeans, no major changes are expected in the US corn numbers. In any case, it's possible that we'll see small adjustments to estimates linked to demand, which could affect final stocks. About South America, the positive weather continues to support the maintenance of full production estimates for Brazil and Argentina, which leaves little room for surprises. In addition, planting of the summer crop in Brazil progressed well throughout November, and we don't see any problems for the second crop planting window.
Wheat: Bullish
On the wheat side, there is a lot of competition on the spot market, with many origins trading at similar flat price levels. This could lead to small changes in demand-related numbers for some origins, as well as export number for Argentina, which is trying to resume its flow of wheat to China. In the medium to long term, there are concerns about the next Russian harvest due to poor weather conditions before the start of winter (in some regions there is a soil moisture deficit), but we shouldn't see any major adjustments for the time being. Finally, Australia is facing heavy rains that could affect the production and quality of its wheat (the current estimate is 31.9 million tonnes). In view of this, cuts are possible.
Written by Ignacio Espinola
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Luiz Roque
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
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