May 7 / Carolina França

Weather and Demand Affect Cocoa Market

The beginning of the rainy season on the Ivory Coast may boost the country's mid-crop development.

Since the beginning of the 24/25 season (Oct/25) 1.536 million tons of almonds have been delivered to ports in Ivory Coast.

Continued good rainfall is extremely important for the start of the next 25/26 season, which begins in October.

Some major processors in the sector have released their financial results in recent weeks, all indicating a reduction in sales volume in 2025.

Due to the possibility of an increase in supply and a deterioration in demand, July contracts in New York and London fell by 5% and 3% last week, respectively.

The start of the rainy season in Ivory Coast has brought above-average rainfall to most of the main almond-producing districts in recent weeks. According to the crop calendar, the recent voluminous rains may boost the development of the mid-crop in the country (Apr/25 to Sept/25), contributing to the harvest in August and September, considering the development period of cocoa fruits. Since the beginning of the 24/25 season (October 2025) to date, 1.536 million tons of beans have been delivered delivered to Ivory Coast ports, 11.4% higher than the same period last season, but 11.7% lower than the five-year average.

As for the weather, NOAA forecasts indicate neutral conditions for the coming months, so temperatures and precipitation are likely to converge toward average, which may help cocoa development in some origins. However, GFS and European weather models show precipitation close to or below average for the coming days. Although we know that weather forecasts have a degree of uncertainty, the current scenario indicated by the models is still a warning sign regarding Ivory Coast and Ghana recovery potential.

On the demand side, Barry Callebaut, Mondelez, and Hershey's, some major processors in the sector, released their financial results in recent weeks, all indicating a reduction in sales volume in 2025. Therefore, despite stronger-than-expected cocoa grindings, the trend for demand for almonds and their derivative products remains bearish. In addition, there are concerns about tariffs imposed by the U.S. and the rising cost of imports, which also contribute to the trend mentioned before, as the country is one of the world's largest consumers of cocoa and an exporter of chocolate and confectionery.

Thus, with the possibility of increased supply and deteriorating demand, July contracts in New York and London fell 5% and 3% last week, respectively. However, part of the decline was recovered on Tuesday, May 6, after a stronger opening for London cocoa, reinforcing volatility in the cocoa market.

The start of the rainy season on the Ivory Coast may boost the development of the country's mid-crop. Since the beginning of the 24/25 season (Oct/25) until now, 1.536 million tons of almonds have been delivered to ports in Ivory Coast. Continued good rainfall is extremely important for the start of the next 25/26 season, which begins in October. On the demand side, some major processors in the sector have released their financial results in recent weeks, all indicating a reduction in sales volume in 2025. Due to the possibility of an increase in supply and a deterioration in demand, July contracts in New York and London fell by 5% and 3% last week, respectively. However, part of the decline was recovered on Tuesday, reinforcing volatility in the cocoa market.

This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without intending to create obligations or commitments to third parties. It is not intended to promote or solicit an offer for the sale or purchase of any securities, commodities interests, or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for the use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly results in any kind of damages. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests, such as futures, options, and swaps, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgment and/or consult advisors before entering into any transactions. Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately. Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only). Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets. “HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.

This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.

Weather and Demand Affect Cocoa Market

Weather and Demand Affect Cocoa Market

Ivory Coast Port Arrivals (Mt)

Cumulative Rainfall Estimated for Ivory Coast’s Cocoa Districts (mm)

Cumulative Rainfall Estimated for Ghana’s Cocoa Regions (mm)

Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities (April 2025)

In Summary

Weekly Report — Cocoa

Disclaimer

To access this report, you need to be a subscriber.

Pages

Terms

Contact us