The week was marked mainly by the most traditional American holiday, Thanksgiving, draining market liquidity between Thursday (27) and Friday (28). The dollar ended the week at R$ 5.3357, down 1% against the real. The high was reached on Tuesday (25) at R$ 5.4131 and the low on Friday (28) at R$ 5.3215. Among the factors that influenced such a devaluation were external factors. Bets were renewed on further cuts by the Fed to US interest rates, contributing to lower buying pressure on the dollar. Even with the dispute over the end-of-month Ptax rate generating greater intraday volatility, this did not prevent the real from appreciating during the week.

• The 40% additional tariffs on Brazilian coffee beans (except for soluble coffee) were lifted on November 20, bringing relief to the market. However, low stocks in destinations could cap part of the correction expected in prices. • Arabica ICE certified stocks continue around the 400 K bags levels. Although it is expected to make some recovery due to the expiry of the December contract, inventories need to rise more significantly until they reach a comfortable level. Notably, Robusta certified stocks fell significantly in the past days.

"Summary of the main points highlighted in our November's Live with Experts on the Soy Complex and Vegetable Oils markets"

The cocoa market is heading towards the end of 2025 in a process of fundamental adjustment, with global supply showing signs of recovery while demand remains weak in the main consuming regions. The combination of a partial recovery in production in relevant origins, a slowdown in grinding in Europe and Asia, and greater resilience in demand in the United States supports the expectation of a surplus for the 25/26 season and explains the recent trend of price correction. Even so, the market continues to operate in an environment of high sensitivity to weather, financial, and logistical variables, which keeps volatility high despite the improvement in the global balance. We expect a surplus of around 305 kt in the 25/26 crop, reinforcing the bearish trend also observed in technical indicators such as the RSI. It is worth noting that the oversold level opens room for technical corrections, which may change market sentiment in the short term.

The previous week, despite the holiday in Brazil last Thursday (20), Black Awareness Day, brought volatility and a lot of "emotion" to the exchange rate. The USD/BRL started the week at R$ 5.2937, recording its lowest level for the period, reaching R$ 5.43 before closing on Friday (21) at R$ 5.4036, representing a 1.40% increase for the week. Among the factors that influenced such a significant appreciation of the dollar against the real, news from the United States stands out, where employment data, although confusing, left everyone uncertain about the future of interest rates. This was compounded by Brazil's "home-grown spice" of political noise between the Planalto and the Senate and even a billion-dollar accounting scandal at a retail giant.

This analysis summarizes the main points discussed in the Live with Experts Coffee on November 19. Some figures were updated with the latest data and may differ from those presented last week.