An Analysis of European Union Cocoa Imports

European Union cocoa imports fell in the first months of 2025. In April, total imports were below the ten-year average and lower than in the same period of the last two cycles. Since the beginning of the current season (Oct/24 to Apr/25), total cocoa imports (beans, paste, butter, and powder) were 12.33% lower than in the corresponding period for the 23/24 crop.

Among several possibilities, the restricted supply of cocoa in recent years, low stocks, and the consequent rising cost of beans and their by-products, which reached historic highs, may have contributed to the reduction in European imports. Despite the adjustments since January, cocoa prices remain above the 10-year average, which may have impacted negotiations.

Consequently, in the medium to long term, this performance reinforces concerns about the bearish trend in cocoa demand. This fact has already been corroborated by the results of cocoa grinding in the first quarter of this year and by the recent financial results of some of the major processors in the sector, both of which showed reductions compared to the same period last year.

Considering European Union cocoa imports by origin, Ivory Coast and Ghana account for over 50% of the total volume imported recently. The two largest cocoa producers in the world still face challenges, mainly related to the climate, which caused a drop in cocoa supply in the 23/24 season and, so far, threatened a partial recovery of production in the current cycle 24/25.

In this context, another important point to be evaluated regarding these cocoa origins is the European Union's Anti-Deforestation Regulation. The EUDR, scheduled to come into force at the end of 2025, aims to reduce global deforestation and requires proof through mapping that products such as cocoa, coffee, and soybean, among others, came from areas not deforested after 2020.

Recently, a study conducted by some organizations, including the World Cocoa Foundation, was developed to assess the quality and performance of maps with local and global data for regions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. The results released in April 2025 show that mapping with global satellite data has difficulty distinguishing more complex landscapes, such as cocoa plantations from natural forests. Thus, the study suggests that a hybrid approach would be ideal to avoid penalizing small producers in particular, since most of the cocoa produced in these regions comes from small farms, which could make it difficult for cocoa from these origins to enter the European bloc.

Finally, it is worth noting the increase in the share of other origins such as Ecuador and Nigeria in European Union cocoa imports. This may indicate a possible move toward diversification by the bloc, given the better performance of cocoa crops in these origins for the current cycle.

European Union cocoa imports declined in 2025. Restricted cocoa supply in recent years, low stocks, and higher prices for beans and their by-products may have contributed to the decrease in European imports. In the medium to long term, this performance reinforces concerns about the bearish trend in cocoa demand. Looking at EU cocoa imports by origin, Ivory Coast and Ghana account for over 50% of total imports in recent periods.

In this context, another important point to consider regarding these cocoa origins is EUDR, which requires proof through mapping that products such as cocoa came from areas not deforested after 2020. A study conducted by some organizations, including the World Cocoa Foundation, assessed the quality and performance of maps with local and global data for regions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, showing that mapping with global satellite data has difficulty in differentiating more complex landscapes. Thus, a hybrid approach would be ideal to avoid penalizing small producers in particular, which could affect the bloc's imports. Finally, the increased participation of other origins such as Ecuador and Nigeria in European Union cocoa imports may indicate a possible diversification movement within the bloc.