Brazil and the Future of Cocoa: Challenges and Opportunities
- Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest cocoa producers, continue to face problems that have put pressure on global supplies.
- As a result, the cocoa market has begun to explore other beans sources. Similarly, other producing countries have started to invest in the crop.
- Brazil, once one of the world's largest producers and exporters of beans, has been conducting research and projects with the aim of regaining its prominent position in the global cocoa sector.
- From January to April of 2025, total net cocoa imports (beans, paste, butter, and powder) were about 62% higher than in the same period last year.
- The expansion of planting areas and the country's processing capacity provide Brazil with a window of opportunity in the cocoa market in the medium term.
Brazil and the Future of Cocoa: Challenges and Opportunities
The cocoa market faces a significant reduction in global bean supply, which has led to an increase in international commodity prices in 2024 and 2025. Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest cocoa producers, continue to grapple with the underlying issues that have contributed to this situation, and a swift resolution is not foreseeable in the short to medium term. Extreme weather events, the increase in crops affected by the CSSV disease (Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus), and aging trees with low productivity are some of the main reasons that have combined to result in the current scenario.
As a consequence, the cocoa market has started to look more closely at other sources of beans. Similarly, other producing countries have begun investing in the crop, both in production and processing capacity, given the market opportunities and attractive prices for the commodity, such as Ecuador and Nigeria, which are currently rank third and fourth in the world ranking of largest cocoa producers, respectively.
Brazil, which in the 23/24 season was the sixth largest cocoa producer in the world according to the ICCO, was once one of the world's largest producers and exporters of beans, but experienced a significant drop in production, mainly after the spread of the “witches' broom” disease in the main producing regions. Since then, several studies and projects have been developed in the country to regain its prominent position in the global cocoa sector, which has led to a recovery in Brazilian crop production in recent years.
World Cocoa Production by Origin (% of total)
Source: ICCO
Brazil: History of Cocoa Production ('000 tons)
Source: FAO, IBGE
Investments were made not only in cocoa production, but also in beans processing in the country. To supply the large processing capacity, which currently stands at almost 300,000 tons – and is greater than national production, Brazil imports cocoa from other sources. Since the beginning of 2025, the total volume of net cocoa imports (imports - exports for beans, paste, butter, and powder) was about 62% higher than in the same period last year.
Brazil: Net Cocoa Imports (‘000 tons)
Source: Comex Stat, Hedgepoint
In recent years, most of the Brazilian imports of the sector have been major beans. Cocoa powder and butter, which have higher added value, lead exports, mainly to Argentina, reinforcing Brazil's important role in cocoa processing.
Brazil: Imports of Cocoa and Cocoa Products (% of total)
Source: Comex Stat, Hedgepoint
Brazil: Exports of cocoa and cocoa products (% of total)
Source: Comex Stat, Hedgepoint
Brazil: Cocoa Imports by Origin ('000 tons)
Source: Comex Stat, Hedgepoint
Brazil: Cocoa Exports by Origin ('000 tons)
Source: Comex Stat, Hedgepoint
Recently, several projects have focused on expanding cocoa areas in southeastern, northern, and northeastern Brazil, including the world's largest cocoa farm, using technology and clones with better agronomic performance. This, combined with the country's existing processing capacity, provides Brazil with a window of opportunity in the cocoa market in the medium term. It is worth noting that the country already has a goal of exceeding 400,000 tons of production by 2030.
In Summary
Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest cocoa producers, still face problems that have put pressure on global cocoa supplies. As a result, the cocoa market has begun to look more closely at other sources of cocoa beans. Similarly, other producing countries have started to invest in the crop.
Brazil, once one of the world's largest producers and exporters of beans, has been conducting research and developing projects with the aim of regaining its prominent position in the global cocoa sector. Since the beginning of 2025, total net cocoa imports (beans, paste, butter, and powder) were about 62% higher than in the same period last year. The expansion of planting areas and the country's processing capacity provide Brazil with a window of opportunity in the cocoa market in the medium term.
Weekly Report — Cocoa
carolina.frança@hedgepointglobal.com
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