Cocoa: technical factors dominate in the short term, with weather in focus
- Cocoa prices continue to fluctuate within recent ranges, reflecting a market driven mainly by technical factors in recent days.
- In Ivory Coast, the recent reduction in rainfall contrasts with a slightly above-average cumulative, maintaining relatively favorable prospects for the 2025/26 season if the weather pattern continues.
- However, above-average temperatures in the country increase the risk of plant stress and the spread of diseases such as CSSV (Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus), which already threatens a significant portion of Ivory Coast's production.
- In Ghana, despite good cumulative rainfall, the recent decrease in precipitation keeps the weather on the market's radar given its importance for the development of the mid-crop.
Cocoa prices fall for another week
In a period still marked by volatility and technical adjustments, cocoa futures closed lower on Friday, February 6. With no significant changes in fundamentals, the attempted recovery seen in the previous session did not hold, with prices once again facing technical limitations. In this context, the market remained more sideways, with prices fluctuating within recently observed ranges, between 4,086 and 4,401 USD/t in New York and 2,885 and 3,129 GBP/t in London.
Cocoa – New York (1st contract): Fibonacci retracement levels
Source: LSEG
Cocoa – New York (1st contract): Fibonacci retracement levels
Source: LSEG
Although recent movements continue to be driven predominantly by technical factors, the weather remains a focus points for the market. In this analysis, we turn our attention to weather conditions, which continue to have the potential to influence price dynamics throughout the month. In Ivory Coast, the most recent picture has been marked by below-average rainfall, which raises concerns for the coming weeks regarding the need for adequate rainfall for the development of the mid-crop, which begins in April. Nevertheless, the cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season remains slightly above average, contributing to a more favorable outlook for the 2025/26 cycle if this weather pattern continue.
Estimated cumulative rainfall for Ivory Coast’s cocoa-producing districts (mm)
Souce: CPC Gadas, Hedgepoint
On the other hand, above-average temperatures recorded in recent weeks may intensify plant stress during drier periods or, when combined with high rainfall, favor the spread of diseases, a recurring concern in the region. In this context, a recent study by the non-profit organization Enveritas estimates that cocoa swollen shoot disease (CSSVD) has been spreading in the country, putting about 15% of Ivory Coast's cocoa production at risk.
Estimated average temperature for cocoa Ivory Coast’s producing districts (°C)
Souce: CPC Gadas, Hedgepoint
In Ghana, the world's second-largest producer, even though the cumulative rainfall between October 2025 and February 2026 was above average and higher than that recorded in the same period last season, the last two weeks have been marked by below-average precipitation. Although the average temperature remains within historical standards, the weather in the coming weeks will play a significant role in the development of the fruits and country's mid-crop, which will continue to be monitored by the market.
Estimated cumulative rainfall for Ghana's cocoa-producing regions (mm)
Souce: CPC Gadas, Hedgepoint
In this sense, although the market remains bearish, the weather continues to be one of the main factors to be monitored, with the potential to cause short-term volatility. Any news related to the main producing regions may cause adjustments in prices, particularly in a market that is close to oversold levels.
In Summary
In an environment still marked by volatility and technical adjustments, cocoa futures have continued to trade sideways in recent days, with no significant changes in fundamentals in the short term. Despite this, the weather remains one of the main factors of concern for the market, with recent conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana requiring closer monitoring, especially in view of the approaching mid-crop. Although cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the crop remains generally favorable, recent episodes of below-average precipitation and high temperatures reinforce weather risks, and any updates may lead to price adjustments in a market already close to oversold levels.
Weekly Report — Cocoa
carolina.frança@hedgepointglobal.com
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
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