May 9 / Laleska Moda

European Imports decline in 2025

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  • Coffee imports from the European Union are at a slow pace in 2025, with the lowest weekly shipments for years recorded in April. This brought cumulative shipments for the 24/25 season to levels similar to the same period in 23/24, despite a stronger start of imports in the cycle.

  • While this reduction raises an alert regarding demand in one of the world's largest coffee markets, the movement may also reflect limited supply in the period and high price volatility in recent months, with a possible demand dislocation.

  • The EU's two largest coffee suppliers, Brazil and Vietnam, continue to face supply constraints, which may have been reflected in the bloc's movement. Many traders and roasters may also be anticipating the intensification of the 25/26 Brazilian harvest and waiting for possible price corrections.

  • In terms of bean suppliers, EU imports of Vietnamese coffee fell in the 24/25 crop year, reflecting lower stocks and the delay in the 24/25 crop year in Vietnam. On the other hand, although imports from Brazil have fallen in 2025, the cumulative volume for the season still shows an increase in the country's share of the bloc.

European Imports decline in 2025

Coffee imports from the European Union are slowing in 2025, especially at the end of April. European Commission data show a sharp decline in net shipments (imports - exports) in the last two weeks of the month, but volumes are generally at historic lows since the beginning of the year. As a result, despite the higher shipments at the beginning of the 24/25 harvest (Oct/24-Sep/25), the cumulative level of the cycle is practically the same as for the same period of 23/24, a harvest characterized by below-average imports.

In the medium term, the European performance is a cause for concern, as it could indicate a slowdown in demand. However, in order to further verify this factor, it is also necessary to evaluate the evolution of the European Coffee Federation (ECF) stocks, for which new data will be published at the end of May.

Despite the demand uncertainty, the current movement of European imports could also reflect the tighter supply of coffee in recent months, especially in the world's two largest coffee exporters, Brazil and Vietnam, which could lead to a possible redistribution of demand in the bloc. Coffee futures prices also continue to reflect supply uncertainties, with the July Arabica contract finding stronger support around 380 c/lb, as the 25/26 harvest in Brazil is still in its early stages and supply in other players such as Vietnam is limited.

EU: Weekly Net Coffee Imports ('000 scs)

Source: European Comission

EU: Net Coffee Imports (M scs)

Source: European Comission

In addition, after high shipments in 2024, Brazilian coffee stocks fell sharply at the end of last year, with most of the 24/25 crop already sold, limiting the country's supply on the global market. On the EU import side, it is also worth remembering that with the sharp rise in coffee prices from December 2024 and hedging costs, many traders and roasters have reduced their trading in anticipation of lower prices as the harvest of the Brazilian 25/26 crop gathers pace.

As a result, the share of Brazilian beans in European imports has been on a downward trend since January. Outside of Brazil, shipments from Vietnam have also seen lower volumes in recent months, reflecting lower stocks, the delay in the 24/25 harvest which began in December last year, and the reluctance of producers to sell the remainder of their stock, especially after prices for both Arabica and Robusta reached record levels at the beginning of the year. Despite the gradual recovery of the country's exports to the EU in 2025 as the harvest progressed, volumes were still low for the period.

This development was also reflected in the country's share of EU imports in the 24/25 harvest (Oct/24 - Apr/25). With lower Vietnamese availability, Vietnam's share of European imports fell from 22.1% in 23/24 to just 15.0%. This led to an increase in Brazil's share in the EU (despite the reduction in 2025), especially on the Conilon side, in addition to the increase in Indonesia. Another interesting movement was the increase in the volume of coffee from East Africa, especially from Uganda (producer of Robusta and Arabica) and Ethiopia (producer of Arabica side), possibly in a movement of the bloc in search of diversification.

EU: Monthly Imports by Origin (M scs)

Source: European Comission

EU: Share of Origins in Imports (% of total)

Source: European Comission

In Summary

Data from the European Commission shows that coffee imports in 2025 are below the historical average. While this could be a sign of weakening demand, it is important to monitor the next few months and European stock levels, as the move could also be a reflection of low grain supply and price volatility in recent months, which would lead to a relocation of European demand.

Currently, the EU's two largest coffee suppliers, Brazil and Vietnam, have more limited supplies. In Vietnam, while stocks from previous harvests were very low, the harvest of the 24/25 crop was delayed last year, and producers have remained more reticent, affecting the country's exports and reducing the share of Vietnamese grain in European imports. In Brazil, the high export rate in 2024 also reduced carryover stocks, while we are still at the beginning of the 25/26 harvest, with higher grain volumes expected in the coming months. On the other hand, despite the reduction in imports of Brazilian grains to the EU in 2025, the Brazilian share of the bloc's total 24/25 harvest still increased compared to past cycles, due to the higher import rate of Brazilian coffee in 2024.

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Laleska Moda

laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com

Reviewed by Lívea Coda
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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