May 16
/
Laleska Moda
With harvest at a slow pace, Brazilian exports continue to fall
Back to main blog page
- Brazil's coffee exports fell in April, totaling 3.09 million bags. Of this total, 2.68 million bags were Arabica coffee, while only 103,580 bags were Conilon/Robusta, reflecting drops of 17.4% and 84.9%, respectively.
- This volume was below average for both varieties and reflects Brazil's low inventories and the lack of sellers in the market in recent months, as the 25/26 harvest is still in its early stages.
- However, in the 24/25 cumulative (June 2024 to May 2025), total exports are higher than in the same period of 23/24, driven by record shipments last year. While the accumulated Arabica exports remain above the previous cycle, Conilon exports have slightly declined, reflecting the significant decrease in shipments in 2025.
- With low Conilon stocks in Brazil and an accelerating Indonesian harvest, it is expected that Conilon shipments will remain below average in the coming months, possibly redirecting the variety to the domestic market.
- Regarding the 25/26 harvest, it is progressing more slowly than in recent years due to the rainfall in several coffee-producing regions.
With harvest at a slow pace, Brazilian exports continue to fall
In April, Brazil's coffee exports totaled 3.09 million bags, a 27.7% decrease compared to last year. Arabica and Conilon had lower green coffee shipments, with values below the five-year average. Arabica exports totaled 2.68 million bags, while Conilon exports totaled 103.5 K bags, representing a 17.4% (564,000 bags) and an 84.9% (581,000 bags) decrease, respectively.
As mentioned in previous analyses, a decline in Brazilian exports was expected since most of the 24/25 harvest was sold in 2024, leaving low carryover stocks. This has been reflected in shipments since the beginning of 2025. Meanwhile, the 25/26 harvest, which began this month, is still in its early stages. A higher volume of coffee will likely reach the market between late June and July. Additionally, producers are more capitalized and may choose to sell fewer new grains on the market, at least until the 26/27 harvest is more defined or prices change significantly.
Despite the reduction in shipments in 2025, the total accumulated volume of the 24/25 Arabica harvest is 33.06 M bags, which is 3.8% higher than the 23/24 total. This is the second-highest accumulated volume so far, behind only the 20/21 harvest. However, for Conilon, exports were below average in 2025. The cumulative total for the 24/25 harvest is down 0.9% compared to 23/24, with 6.71 million bags shipped so far.
Brazil: Green Arabica Coffee Exports (M bags)
Source: Cecafé
Brazil: Green Conilon Coffee/Robusta Exports ('000 bags)
Source: Cecafé
Due to low Conilon stocks in Brazil and an accelerating Robusta harvest in Indonesia, Conilon shipments are expected to remain below average in the coming months. The prospect of a larger harvest in Indonesia has caused Asian differentials to retreat strongly, making these coffees more competitive than Brazilian beans. In Brazil, lower Arabica availability has widened the price spread between Arabica and Conilon, making the latter more attractive to domestic industries.
As the Conilon harvest usually progresses faster than the Arabica harvest, there is a tendency for more Conilon to be redirected to the Brazilian domestic market in the coming months. Currently, Brazil's Conilon harvest is at 11%, while the Arabica harvest is only at 4%. This brings the national total to 7%, which is below the average of 10% for the last few harvests. The slower harvest pace reflects the recent rains in several producing regions, including Espírito Santo, Bahia, Rondônia, and Matas de Minas. Some producers may prefer to wait for the beans to mature further and have a lower moisture content before harvesting their coffee, as most of them are already capitalized.
Brazil: Arabica Coffee Harvest (% of total)
Source: Safras & Mercado
Brazil: Conilon/Robusta Coffee Harvest (% of total)
Source: Safras & Mercado
In Summary
Brazil's coffee exports decreased in April. Both Arabica and Conilon volumes were below average, reflecting Brazil's low inventories and the lack of sellers in the market in recent months. The 25/26 crop harvest is still in its early stages.
However, in the 24/25 cumulative (June 2024 to May 2025), total exports are higher than in the same period of 23/24, driven by record shipments last year. While the accumulated Arabica exports remain above the previous cycle, Conilon exports have slightly declined, reflecting the significant decrease in shipments in 2025. Conilon shipments are expected to remain low in the coming months, even as the harvest advances. This is due to the Robusta harvest in Indonesia, which may redirect Conilon to the domestic market
Weekly Report — Coffee
Written by Laleska Moda
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Carolina França
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without intending to create obligations or commitments to third parties. It is not intended to promote or solicit an offer for the sale or purchase of any securities, commodities interests, or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for the use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly results in any kind of damages. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests, such as futures, options, and swaps, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgment and/or consult advisors before entering into any transactions. Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately. Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only). Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets. “HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.
To access this report, you need to be a subscriber.
Contact us
hedgepointhub.support@hedgepointglobal.com
ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com
Funchal Street, 418, 18º floor - Vila Olímpia São Paulo, SP, Brasil
This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.