May 16 / Laleska Moda

With harvest at a slow pace, Brazilian exports continue to fall

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  • Brazil's coffee exports fell in April, totaling 3.09 million bags. Of this total, 2.68 million bags were Arabica coffee, while only 103,580 bags were Conilon/Robusta, reflecting drops of 17.4% and 84.9%, respectively.

  • This volume was below average for both varieties and reflects Brazil's low inventories and the lack of sellers in the market in recent months, as the 25/26 harvest is still in its early stages.

  • However, in the 24/25 cumulative (June 2024 to May 2025), total exports are higher than in the same period of 23/24, driven by record shipments last year. While the accumulated Arabica exports remain above the previous cycle, Conilon exports have slightly declined, reflecting the significant decrease in shipments in 2025.

  • With low Conilon stocks in Brazil and an accelerating Indonesian harvest, it is expected that Conilon shipments will remain below average in the coming months, possibly redirecting the variety to the domestic market.

  • Regarding the 25/26 harvest, it is progressing more slowly than in recent years due to the rainfall in several coffee-producing regions.

With harvest at a slow pace, Brazilian exports continue to fall

In April, Brazil's coffee exports totaled 3.09 million bags, a 27.7% decrease compared to last year. Arabica and Conilon had lower green coffee shipments, with values below the five-year average. Arabica exports totaled 2.68 million bags, while Conilon exports totaled 103.5 K bags, representing a 17.4% (564,000 bags) and an 84.9% (581,000 bags) decrease, respectively.

As mentioned in previous analyses, a decline in Brazilian exports was expected since most of the 24/25 harvest was sold in 2024, leaving low carryover stocks. This has been reflected in shipments since the beginning of 2025. Meanwhile, the 25/26 harvest, which began this month, is still in its early stages. A higher volume of coffee will likely reach the market between late June and July. Additionally, producers are more capitalized and may choose to sell fewer new grains on the market, at least until the 26/27 harvest is more defined or prices change significantly.

Despite the reduction in shipments in 2025, the total accumulated volume of the 24/25 Arabica harvest is 33.06 M bags, which is 3.8% higher than the 23/24 total. This is the second-highest accumulated volume so far, behind only the 20/21 harvest. However, for Conilon, exports were below average in 2025. The cumulative total for the 24/25 harvest is down 0.9% compared to 23/24, with 6.71 million bags shipped so far.

Brazil: Green Arabica Coffee Exports (M bags)

Source: Cecafé

Brazil: Green Conilon Coffee/Robusta Exports ('000 bags)

Source: Cecafé

Due to low Conilon stocks in Brazil and an accelerating Robusta harvest in Indonesia, Conilon shipments are expected to remain below average in the coming months. The prospect of a larger harvest in Indonesia has caused Asian differentials to retreat strongly, making these coffees more competitive than Brazilian beans. In Brazil, lower Arabica availability has widened the price spread between Arabica and Conilon, making the latter more attractive to domestic industries.

As the Conilon harvest usually progresses faster than the Arabica harvest, there is a tendency for more Conilon to be redirected to the Brazilian domestic market in the coming months. Currently, Brazil's Conilon harvest is at 11%, while the Arabica harvest is only at 4%. This brings the national total to 7%, which is below the average of 10% for the last few harvests. The slower harvest pace reflects the recent rains in several producing regions, including Espírito Santo, Bahia, Rondônia, and Matas de Minas. Some producers may prefer to wait for the beans to mature further and have a lower moisture content before harvesting their coffee, as most of them are already capitalized.

Brazil: Arabica Coffee Harvest (% of total)

Source: Safras & Mercado

Brazil: Conilon/Robusta Coffee Harvest (% of total)

Source: Safras & Mercado

In Summary

Brazil's coffee exports decreased in April. Both Arabica and Conilon volumes were below average, reflecting Brazil's low inventories and the lack of sellers in the market in recent months. The 25/26 crop harvest is still in its early stages.

However, in the 24/25 cumulative (June 2024 to May 2025), total exports are higher than in the same period of 23/24, driven by record shipments last year. While the accumulated Arabica exports remain above the previous cycle, Conilon exports have slightly declined, reflecting the significant decrease in shipments in 2025. Conilon shipments are expected to remain low in the coming months, even as the harvest advances. This is due to the Robusta harvest in Indonesia, which may redirect Conilon to the domestic market

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Laleska Moda

laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com

Reviewed by Carolina França
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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