Aug 11 / Laleska Moda

Vietnam and Indonesia exports rise in 2025, but trade slow down

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  • Vietnam and Indonesia exports rose in the first half of 2025. For Vietnam, the volume was slightly below the 10-year average in some months, but still higher than the same period of 2024. In Indonesia, exports kept a strong performance, with shipments above 24/25 and the 10 –year average levels.

  • Exports were mainly favored by the lack of Brazilian offer, as sales of the Latin American country remain sluggishly, and more competitive Asian differentials in the past moths. In the case of Indonesia, a higher production in 25/26 also favored shipments.

  • However, according to some market reports, trade in Asia is now muted due to lower stocks and weaker demand. Vietnamese and Indonesia differentials have remained supported in recent days.

  • Market also continues to monitor the development of Brazil-US relations. As the 50% tariff takes effect in Brazilian coffee shipments starting this week, trade between the two countries has halted, boosting future prices.

Vietnam and Indonesia exports rise in 2025, but trade slow down

Vietnam and Indonesia's exports showed a positive performance in the first half of 2025 as Brazilian Conilon availability remained low. In Vietnam, exports exceeded 2024 levels since February, when the country's 24/25 crop hit the market. Total shipments increased by 6.9% in the January–July period. However, the cumulative figures for the 24/25 season still show a drop compared to the 23/24 figures due to a slow start to the cycle and record-high exports during the first months of the 23/24 crop year.

As for Indonesia, exports were already showing stronger results in 2024 due to higher production in the 24/25 season. However, the absence of Brazilian farmers from the market since January has also boosted shipments, with a 76% increase in the first half of the year. With a good harvest in the 25/26 cycle, the cumulative figures for the season show a 58.1% increase from the same period in the 24/25.

Besides greater availability in Asia, the decrease in differentials in the region, which occurred in part of 2025, also contributed to the performance. However, in recent weeks, differentials have increased, especially in Vietnam, due to diminished supply during the off-season. According to local traders, most of the 24/25 crop has already been sold, leaving little stock remaining. Regarding the development of the 25/26 season, coffee trees are developing well despite a drier than expected July. Overall, crop development remains positive, but we should monitor precipitation distribution more closely in the coming months. The new season's harvest is expected to occur between October and November, with a larger supply of coffee reaching the market in December

Vietnam: Coffee Exports (000’ bags)

Source: LSEG, ICO

Indonesia: Coffee Exports (000’ bags)

Source: LSEG, ICO

In Indonesia, farmers have already sold a significant portion of their 25/26 inventory and are waiting for higher prices before selling the remainder, also supporting differentials. The country has also experienced intense rainfall in recent weeks. Although no major losses were reported, the rains disrupted the end of the harvest and slowed trade. Conversely, reports of a decrease in demand for Asian coffees have also emerged. This could reflect both the recent changes in differentials and the expectation of increased Brazilian Conilon availability in the second half of the year, as Brazil's 25/26 harvest is nearly finished.

The global market has also been paying close attention to Brazil-US relations. With the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee taking effect this week, trade between the two countries has reportedly halted. While coffee loaded in Brazil before the August 6 tariff deadline is expected to enter the U.S. without paying the tariff if it arrives by October 6, new trades are unlikely to occur between the two countries in the short term.

This has supported prices, especially Arabica's. In this sense, the September contract surpassed 300 cents per pound this Friday. A cold front reaching Brazil in the coming days also supported the futures. Prices are likely to remain volatile in the coming months due to uncertainties regarding the medium- and long-term impacts on the global coffee supply chain.


Robusta Differentials (USD/mt)

Source: LSEG

Vietnam: Cumulative Precipitation in Central Highlands (mm)

Source: Gadas/CPC

In Summary

Vietnam and Indonesia have seen strong coffee export performances in early 2025, largely due to limited Brazilian Conilon availability. Vietnam’s shipments have surpassed 2024 levels since February, though the cumulative figures for the 24/25 season still trail the previous one due to a slow start. Indonesia, benefiting from a robust 24/25 harvest and Brazil’s market absence, has also seen a notable rise in exports, with cumulative figures for the season showing significant growth.

Asian exports have also been bolstered by lower differentials earlier in the year, though recent weeks have seen a reversal, particularly in Vietnam, as stocks dwindle. Traders report that most of Vietnam’s crop has already been sold, and while the 25/26 crop is developing well, rainfall patterns will need close monitoring. Indonesia’s farmers have sold much of their inventory and are holding out for better prices.
The market also continues to monitor the effects of the 50% tariff from the US on Brazilian coffee. This ha already led to pausing trade between the two nations. While pre-tariff shipments may still enter the U.S. without penalty, future deals are unlikely in the short term. This disruption has supported Arabica prices, which surged past 300 cents per pound, further fueled by weather concerns in Brazil. Market volatility is expected to persist as traders assess the broader impact on global supply chains.


Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Laleska Moda

laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com

Reviewed by Lívea Coda
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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