EU net imports are lower in 24/25, but stocks and disappearance show small recovery
- The European Union's coffee net imports for the 24/25 cycle totaled 39.6 million bags, slightly below the previous year and the 10-year average. While total imports saw an increase in the season, reexports were also up, leading to lower net imports.
- Notably, Brazil’s share in EU imports decreased, but there was an increase in Indonesia, Eastern African and Central American countries in the block’s share. This change was also reflected in ECF stocks figures, with increase in Robusta and Washed Arabica participation over Natural Arabica.
- Despite modest stock recovery, levels remain historically low. On the other hand, apparent consumption in the EU shows resilience, with figures higher than in 23/24. However, rising consumer prices and ongoing market uncertainty could still negatively affect import and consumption trends in the 25/26 cycle.
The
European Union's coffee net imports (total imports minus total reexports) for
the 24/25 cycle ended slightly below the 23/24 levels (-2.1%) and the 10-year
average, totaling 39.6 million bags of green and processed beans. Despite a
recovery between May and July of this year and strong numbers in the first
quarter of 2024, cumulative figures were negatively affected by the performance
in September, when net imports reached minimal levels.
Interestingly, when looking only at import figures, the total increased to 47.1 million bags in 24/25, up 0.8% from 23/24. However, reexports increased by 19.1% during this period, reaching 7.4 million bags. This led to a drop in net imports.
Regarding EU trading partners, it's important to note that Brazil's market share of European imports decreased, likely due to supply limitations in early 2025 and farmers' lack of interest in new sales in recent months. Vietnam also decreased its share of EU imports due mainly to lower stocks in 2024. However, Indonesia, Colombia, Peru, Central American countries, and especially East African countries increased their share. This is also in line with the increase in coffee exports from these origins in 2025, especially from Indonesia, Uganda, and Ethiopia.
EU: Total Net Imports (M bags)
Source: European Comission
EU: Imports Share by Origin (% of total)
Source: European Comission
This trends in imports have also been reflected in the composition of the European Coffee Federation stocks, according to new data released on September 30. The share of Robusta in ECF stocks has increased considerably since May, when stocks began to recover, reflecting an increase in imports from Vietnam and Uganda. The share of washed Arabica in stocks has also increased, following higher imports from Central America and Ethiopia. However, natural beans decreased, mainly due to a drop in imports from Brazil, the largest supplier.
Although
the increase in Robusta and washed Arabica stocks provided a small recovery, it
is important to note that the figures remain at the lowest levels in years and
below those of 2024. Besides the drop in Brazilian exports in 2025, factors
such as high price volatility and spreads for Arabica and Robusta contracts, as
well as higher financial costs and interest rates, discourage stock formation
and could also contribute to the current low levels.
On
the other hand, apparent consumption (or disappearance) is showing signs of
resilience in the EU, which could be limiting the current recovery of stocks.
Considering net imports and stock variations over the past few months, the
cumulative figures for the 24/25 cycle (October 2024 to August 2025) reached
39.8 million bags. Although this is lower than in seasons such as 18/19 and
22/23, disappearance is still higher than in 23/24 and is in line with average
levels.
While this indicates a positive outlook for consumption, the future remains challenging, especially given current high prices, market volatility, and uncertainty. For example, looking only at imports, figures could remain lower for the remainder of 2025 because the EUDR has been postponed again, giving roasters more time to purchase coffee. Additionally, although disappearance indicates the resilience of demand in the EU, consumer coffee prices are still rising worldwide. Therefore, we cannot rule out a negative impact – or a flat scenario – on the 25/26 figures yet.
EU: European Federation Stocks by Type (M bags)
Source: ECF
EU: European Federation Stocks (M bags)
Source: ECF
Summary
Shifts in EU trading partners were notable: Brazil and Vietnam saw declines in market share due to supply restrictions and low stock levels, while countries like Indonesia, Central American countries, and East African nations gained ground. These changes were mirrored in the European Coffee Federation’s stock composition, with Robusta and washed Arabica shares rising thanks to increased imports from Uganda, Vietnam, Central America, and Ethiopia. In contrast, natural beans declined due to reduced Brazilian imports in 2025.
Despite modest stock recovery, levels remain historically low, hindered by price volatility, high financial costs, and interest rates. On the other hand, apparent consumption in the EU shows resilience, with figures higher than in 23/24. However, rising consumer prices and ongoing market uncertainty could still negatively affect import and consumption trends in the 25/26 cycle.
EU: Disappearance/Apparent Consumption (M bags)
Source: European Comission, ECF, Hedgepeoint - Cumulative figures Oct-Aug
EU: Seasonal Disappearance/Apparent Consumption (M bags)
Source: European Comission, ECF, Hedgepeoint
Weekly Report — Coffee
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
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