Feb 5 / Laleska Moda

European coffee stocks decrease in 2025, but the trend may change in 2026

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  • European Coffee Federation stocks closed 2025 at low levels. Inventories ended December at 7.65 M bags, down 16.1% in one year. Regarding stocks composition, Robusta’s beans make up most of the available coffee, followed by Washed Arabica.

  • Lower stocks reflect decreased imports in 2024 and 2025, following a drop in global supply and higher prices. Total imports in 2025 reached 46.9 M bags, a decrease of 5.1% from 2024 and below the 10-year average.

  • Monthly net import figures (Imports – Reexports) also show a sharp decrease in 2025, which was reflected in apparent consumption/disappearance for the 24/25 season.

  • For the 25/26 season, although disappearance in its first months is lower than the 21/22, 22/23 and 23/24 cycles, there is a recovery regarding the 24/25 cycle. The possibility of a record crop in Brazil in 26/27 is likely to pressure prices this year possibly influencing demand in 25/26 and 26/27.

  • Arabica contracts, specifically, recorded strong losses this week, reflecting both the supply fundamentals and the technicals, after breaking through technical support levels this first week of February.

European coffee stocks decrease in 2025, but the trend may change in 2026 

The European Coffee Federation (ECF) stocks ended in 2025 at 7.65 M bags, a drop of 16.1% from 2024, continuing the trend from past months. EU inventories experienced a significant decrease in the past two seasons, sparked by limited supplies – first from Southeast Asia and then from Brazil –, increasing coffee prices and financial costs, which also discourage stock formation in destinations. Meanwhile, farmers in major producing countries have also shown less interest in new sales over the past months, affecting global coffee exports


EU: European Coffee Federation Stocks (M bags)

Source: ECF

EU: ECF Stocks by type of coffee (M bags)

Source: ECF

It’s interesting to note that, until August, inventories were in a small recovery trend, mainly driven by Robusta and washed Arabica increases, with stronger imports from Vietnam, Central America and East Africa. Total imports in 2025, however, reached 46.9 M bags, a decrease of 5.1% from 2024 and below the 10-year average, while the blocs reexport remained at a stronger trend– above the 10-year average –, especially in Q1 and Q4, leading to weaker net import figures (Imports minus Reexports) in the year.

Apparent consumption, or disappearance, also reflected this trend. On the completion of the 24/25 season (Oct/24 – Sep/25), disappearance reached 41.6 M bags of coffee, 1.3% down from 23/24, and 3.1% lower than the 10-year average levels. However, the first three months of the 25/26 season (Oct-Dec) showed a recovery from the same period of the 24/25 season, and the expectation is for an increase in both imports and apparent consumption, due to the anticipation of higher supply and lower prices in 2026. The current bearish trend in prices and higher supply, especially from Brazil, could aid in the recovery of EU stocks.


EU : Monthly Net Imports (‘000 bags)

Source: Euroepan Comission, Hedgepoint

EU: Apparent Consumption/Disappearance (M bags)

Source:Euroepan Comission, ECF, Hedgepoint 

This early February alone, the contracts for both Arabica and Robusta coffee experienced substantial losses, as weather remains positive in Brazil and a possible record crop in the country in 26/27 could benefit an inventory rebuilding. Arabica prices experienced the biggest drop, as ICE stocks started to show signs of recovery, with an increase in pending grading volumes, and due to a sell-off, as the contracts broke through technical support levels early this week. The March/26 contract traded below 310 c/lb, while the May/26 (the most liquid contract) closed below the 300 c/lb in the past days, levels not seen since August 2025. It is also interesting to note that the spread between the March-May contracts has also significantly dropped this Wednesday, 4, and while they remain positive (for now), this could signal a possible change in market sentiment and funds movement.  


In Summary

ECF stocks closed 2025 down from 2024. The decline reflects two consecutive seasons of tight supply – initially from Southeast Asia and later from Brazil – combined with higher prices and rising financial costs, which discouraged stock building in destination markets. At the same time, producers in major origins showed limited interest in new sales, weighing on global exports and EU imports.

Apparent consumption followed a similar pattern, with figures from 24/25 season below the 10-year average level. Early signs from the start of the 2025/26 season, however, indicatea recovery, with October–December figures exceeding the same period a year earlier and fueling expectations of higher imports and consumption in 2026, supported by prospects of greater supply and lower prices. This outlook gained traction in early February, as Arabica and Robusta futures posted sharp losses amid favorable weather in Brazil and growing expectations of a record 26/27 crop. Arabica led the decline, also pressured by a small increase in ICE stocks and technical selling, with prices falling to levels last seen in August 2025. A sharp narrowing of the March–May spread has also raised signals of a potential shift in market sentiment and fund positioning.

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Laleska Moda

laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com

Reviewed by Livea Coda
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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