May 13 / Laleska Moda

Asia: Market activity remains limited amid tight supply

Coffee sales in Southeast Asia have been subdued in recent weeks due to restricted supply from Vietnam and Indonesia.
Until April, Vietnamese coffee exports have remained strong, reaching 18.6 million bags so far in the 25/26 season, up 23.9% year on year. As a large share of the crop has already been sold, farmers are now holding back further sales.
Buyers are shifting their attention to Indonesia, where the harvest is underway. However, heavy rainfall over the past month has delayed the start of the 26/27 harvest, limiting coffee availability in April. Export volumes reflected this tight supply, declining in March.
Weather conditions remain a key focus in Vietnam as well, as the 26/27 season develops. April was drier than usual, with cumulative precipitation below average; however, coffee trees continue to develop well. Rainfall is expected to return to major coffee producing regions in the coming weeks, although the potential development of El Niño is already on market participants’ radar.

Over the past few weeks, reports have indicated that coffee sales in Southeast Asia have been more subdued, due to lower inventories and increased farmer selling until early April. In Vietnam, farmers took advantage of favorable prices, higher production in the 25/26 season, and the absence of Brazilian sellers in recent months to increase sales earlier in the season. This trend was reflected in export figures, which have remained above historical averages.

In the season’s cumulative (Oct/25 – Apr/26), total coffee exports reached 18.65 M bags, 23.9% up from the 15 M bags shipped in the same period of the 24/25 season. However, as the country is now in its offseason and as a large share of the crop has already been sold, farmers are now holding back further sales, prompting buyers to shift to Indonesia.

As in Vietnam, Indonesian coffee exports also benefited from the decline in Brazilian Robusta shipments over the past month, alongside a recovery in production and strong prices. Export performance remained solid through February, with cumulative exports for the 25/26 season (Apr/25–Mar/26) totaling 9.9 M bags, up 22.7% year on year. However, March shipments fell sharply compared with both previous months and 2025 levels, reflecting tighter supply conditions.

This scenario has also supported Robusta prices, especially since the Brazilian 26/27 harvest – an expected record one – has yet to gain pace. A stronger BRL has also contributed to short-term support, as it disincentivizes Brazilian farmers from selling.

The country’s 26/27 harvest was expected to begin in April, with larger volumes reaching the market from May onward. However, heavy rainfall throughout last month has delayed the start of the harvest, limiting coffee availability. Looking at precipitation forecasts for the next 14 days, the American model points to wetter conditions in Sumatra – one of the country’s largest producing regions – while the European model indicates more moderate rainfall, which could allow harvesting activities to proceed and alleviate short-term supply concerns. As a result, closely monitoring rainfall conditions over the coming weeks will be essential.

Vietnamese farmers are also increasingly focused on the early development stage of the 26/27 season. After a wetter March, April brought below average rainfall, raising some concerns about tree conditions and flower blooms, particularly amid expectations of a potentially active El Niño in Q2. So far, however, no negative impacts have been reported, and additional rainfall is expected in the coming days, which should provide some relief to farmers. Typically, El Niño events can delay the onset of the rainy season, increase temperatures, and intensify dry conditions in the country. Therefore, while negative impacts on the 26/27 season cannot be ruled out should the phenomenon intensify, the main risks are currently seen for the 27/28 season, as El Niño could constrain water availability for irrigation and delay coffee flowering.

Coffee sales in Southeast Asia have softened recently as inventories tightened following stronger farmer selling earlier in the season, particularly in Vietnam, where producers sold aggressively amid favorable prices, ample supply, and limited Brazilian competition. With much of the crop already marketed and the country now in the offseason, Vietnamese farmers are holding back sales, pushing buyers to look more closely at Indonesia. Indonesian exports initially benefited from stronger prices, production improvements, and reduced Brazilian Robusta availability, but supply has since tightened as shipments declined amid delayed harvesting caused by heavy rains. Weather remains a key variable across the region, as uneven rainfall and growing concerns over a potential El Niño could affect crop development, with near-term risks appearing limited but longer-term impacts posing greater concern for upcoming seasons.

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Asia: Market activity remains limited amid tight supply

Asia: Market activity remains limited amid tight supply

Vietnam: Coffee Exports (M bags)

Indonesia: Coffee Exports (M bags)

Vietnam: Central Highlands Cumulative Precipitation (mm)

Indonesia: Cumulative Precipitation (mm)

Southeast Asia Precipitation Forecast – American (left) and European (right) Model (mm)

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