Jun 3 / Laleska Moda

European stocks show a small recovery amid stronger robusta imports

  Back to main blog page
  • The European Coffee Federation stocks showed a small recovery in April, reaching 6.8 M bags. The figures, however, are still below historical average levels, which could indicate structural changes in the market.  

  • The data also shows that the recovery was mainly led by an increase in Robusta beans. This was also highlighted in the import figures from the EU, showing an increase in participation from origins such as Vietnam and Indonesia, major Robusta producers. 

  • Net import figures continue to be at lower-than-average levels, indicating a slower European coffee market, but cumulative levels in 25/26 are similar to those from 24/25.

  • Looking at disappearance levels, the 25/26 shows a small recovery from 24/25, although it remained below average levels.  

European stocks show a small recovery amid stronger robusta imports

The European Coffee Federation's April data, released this week, indicate a slight recovery in stock levels compared with March, reaching 6.8 million bags, driven mainly by an increase in Robusta inventories. Stock levels for this variety have declined significantly since September last year but rose slightly in April, reflecting higher imports during the month. However, it is important to highlight that inventories remain at historically low levels.

This trend has been ongoing since last year and likely reflects not only limited farmer selling interest in key origins such as Brazil – where sales are below average – but also increased financial costs. For several months, the coffee market has maintained an inverted structure (where near-term contracts are more expensive than those with longer expiry), while prices have remained elevated, increasing carry costs and discouraging stockpiling in destination markets. In Brazil specifically, farmer withholding and higher differentials since early this year have reduced exports, prompting increases in the country's carryover stocks, shifting the balance between origin and destination.

European Coffee Federation Stocks (M bags)

Source: ECF

ECF Stocks by variety (M bags)

Source: ECF

The European Union's import data also supports this view. Despite a recovery in net imports (imports minus re-exports) in recent months, cumulative shipments in the 2025/26 season (October–April) remain below average levels, although they are similar to the volumes observed in the 2024/25 season. However, there has been a shift in the composition of the EU’s trading partners.

Brazil’s share decreased by 12.9% in 2025/26 compared to the previous two seasons, likely reflecting higher differentials and a slower pace of farmers selling, as mentioned earlier. The participation of other Arabica-producing regions in EU imports – such as Central America, Colombia, and Peru – also declined during the period. In contrast, Robusta-focused origins, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, increased their share of EU imports. Vietnam’s share rose by 54.3% in the 2025/26 season (October–April), reaching 6.5 million bags, while Indonesia’s share increased by 78.2%, totaling 1.3 million bags over the same period.


EU: Total Net Coffee Imports (M bags)

Source: European Commission, Hedgepoint

EU: Share of Imports by Origin (October-April)

Source: European Commission, Hedgepoint

Finally, when analyzing the European Union’s disappearance, cumulative figures for the 2025/26 season indicate a modest recovery compared to 2024/25 levels. This reflects a scenario in which imports, although still below historical averages, remain broadly in line with last season, while stocks are at historically low levels – suggesting that buyers continue to rely on existing inventories.

Thus, while disappearance still shows some moderation compared to seasons such as 2021/22, 2022/23, and 2023/24, the continued depletion of already tight stocks signals a degree of resilience in underlying consumption. Even in an environment of high prices and elevated carry costs, end-user demand has remained relatively firm.

However, as discussed earlier, the current cost structure is likely to continue discouraging inventory rebuilding in destination markets, keeping stocks tight. This dynamic increases the market’s sensitivity to supply fluctuations, despite the more bearish backdrop driven by expectations of a record Brazilian crop in 2025/26. This is particularly relevant given that most other origins are currently in the development stage, while an El Niño is emerging, potentially introducing upside risks – especially for September contracts.


EU: Disappearance (M bags)

Source: Hedgepoint, ECF, European Commission

In Summary

European coffee stocks showed only a slight recovery but remain at historically low levels, reflecting a market still operating under tight supply conditions. This dynamic is largely explained by limited farmer selling in key origins such as Brazil, high prices, and an inverted futures structure that increases carry costs and discourages stock accumulation in destination markets. As a result, while imports into the EU have improved recently, they remain below average and have not been sufficient to rebuild inventories. At the same time, there has been a shift in sourcing, with reduced participation from Arabica origins and a growing role for Robusta suppliers like Vietnam and Indonesia.

From a demand perspective, Europe’s disappearance shows a modest recovery from 2024/25 but remains somewhat below the stronger levels seen in previous seasons. However, the continued drawdown of already low stocks indicates that demand remains relatively resilient despite high prices. Going forward, tight inventories are likely to persist given the current cost structure, keeping the market highly sensitive to supply risks. This is particularly relevant in the context of ongoing crop development in key regions and the emergence of new weather risks, which could lead to some upward movements in the market in the future, although the general outlook remains bearish. 

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Laleska Moda

laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com

Reviewed by Lívea Coda
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without intending to create obligations or commitments to third parties. It is not intended to promote or solicit an offer for the sale or purchase of any securities, commodities interests, or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for the use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly results in any kind of damages. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests, such as futures, options, and swaps, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgment and/or consult advisors before entering into any transactions. Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately. Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only). Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets. “HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.