Vietnam and India increase exports, but Indonesia sees a decline

Although exports typically experience a seasonal decline in the final months of the crop year—reflecting lower supply and the approaching harvest of the new crop—total shipments from the country are expected to close the 25/26 season above the volumes recorded in recent crop years, reaching 29.2 million bags. At the same time, buyers have already begun building positions for the 26/27 season, with shipments set to begin in December, although it is likely that few deals have been closed so far.

The 26/27 season officially begins in October, but the beans are expected to reach the market in larger volumes only between November and December. So far, weather conditions have varied across regions of the Asian country, with adequate rainfall in some areas and below-average precipitation in others.

As El Niño intensifies in the coming months, drier conditions may persist in Vietnam, with producers possibly relying more on irrigation for the final stage of coffee development. Given the current weather conditions, we have marginally reduced the production forecast to 30.1 million bags, as the recent increase in planted area is likely to mitigate some of the negative effects of the weather on production. Initially, we project a slight decline in exports for 26/27, to 28.5 million bags, based on production levels and seasonal patterns over the past 10 years, although shipments may surprise on the upside—as they did in 25/26. Nevertheless, volumes are projected to remain at levels higher than those of recent years.

In addition to Vietnam, India has also seen higher exports in 25/26. The cumulative figures for the season show shipments at 5.7 million bags, an 11.6% increase compared to the previous season and well above the 10-year average of 3.3 million bags. Although it still lags the leading Robusta producers—Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia—the country has been increasing its production and presence as an exporter in recent years (as has Uganda), especially following the rise in coffee prices in 2024.

The expectation is that, with coffee prices still high and growing demand for Robusta—given the still-favorable price differential for consuming this variety compared to Arabica—the country will continue to see higher export volumes than in recent years. For the 26/27 crop year, exports may remain above the average of recent years, but a possible decline in production—due to the negative effects of El Niño on the Indian monsoon season—could limit the volume compared to the 25/26 crop. 

In Indonesia, on the other hand, exports for the 26/27 season have been lower than in the 25/26 season, although still higher than the 10-year average. In the aggregate for the crop (April–June), shipments totaled just 1.5 million bags, a 26.8% decline compared to the same period in 25/26, reflecting the initial delay in the harvest and lower stocks following strong exports in the previous cycle.

On the other hand, with the 26/27 harvest nearing its end, shipments are expected to gain momentum in the coming months. Total exports for the crop year are projected at 8.6 million bags, above recent years’ figures but below the 9.8 million exported in 25/26, reflecting lower production in this cycle. Production in 26/27 was hampered by heavy rains during flowering, which knocked off the flowers and limited yield potential.

For the 27/28 season, reports indicate that several plantations have already had their first flowering. However, the volume produced in the next crop will still depend on the effects of El Niño in the coming months, as the phenomenon tends to reduce rainfall and increase temperatures during the coffee plantations’ development period, which could negatively impact the 27/28 season.

laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com