Sep 8

Coffee Weekly Report - 2023 09 08

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  • This week, coffee stock data for Japan and the European Union were released. In the first part of our destination demand analysis, we will investigate the numbers for Japan, and next week, we will cover the EU figures.

  • In H1 2023, reduced imports led to a stock decline in Japan, defying seasonal patterns. July had 2.44M bags of coffee stocks, 18% below average, with a slight 3.2% monthly increase.

  • June imports dropped 10% YoY to 526K bags, showing an unusual trend. In the 2022-2023 cycle, Japan's imports plummeted by 23%, well below the 5.14M bag estimate. Despite demographic expectations, actual demand has been weaker.

  • Apparent consumption from Oct '22 to June '23 is 4.72M bags, down 4.3% YoY. These figures highlight challenges in Japan's coffee market, with a -0.7% YoY change in total consumption from 21/22 to 22/23, suggesting potential shifts in consumer preferences and supply chain disruptions.

Coffee demand in destinations | Part I – Japan

This week, we saw the release of coffee inventory figures for Japan and the European Union. We will start by examining the Japanese data, and in the following week, we'll focus on the EU numbers.

In the Japanese green coffee market, the first half of 2023 witnessed a remarkable shift. From January to April, Japan experienced a significant reduction in coffee stocks, mainly attributed to a decline in imports. Japan, as the leading coffee importer in Asia, reported historically low import figures for these months, contrary to the usual seasonal increase.

By the end of July, coffee stocks stood at 2.44 million bags, reflecting an 18% deviation from the average. However, there was a slight month-over-month increase of 3.2%, defying the expected seasonal decline of -0.3%.

In June, imports reached 526,000 bags, marking a 10% drop compared to the previous year, along with a month-over-month decrease of -0.4%. This unusual trend in Japan's coffee market has drawn attention and may indicate evolving consumer preferences among supply chain disruptions.

Image 1: Coffee Stocks – Japan (M bags)

Source: Japan Coffee Association, hEDGEpoint

Image 2: Coffee Imports – Japan (‘000 bags)

Source: Japan Coffee Association, hEDGEpoint

In the 2022-2023 coffee cycle, Japan's cumulative imports until June reached 4.19 million bags, marking a stark year-over-year decline of -23%.

This sharp drop of -19% from the estimated 5.14 million bags highlights an unexpected downturn in demand. While Japan's demographic trends suggested lower demand growth, the actual performance has been worse than anticipated.

The apparent consumption estimate for October 2022 to June 2023 stands at 4.72 million bags, with a YoY change of -4.3% and a slight deviation of -4.4% from the 4.94 million bag estimate.

Overall, these figures underscore the challenges faced in the Japanese coffee market, with a YoY change of -0.7% in total consumption from 21/22 to 22/23.

Image 3: Coffee Imports – Japan (M bags)

Source: Japan Coffee Association, hEDGEpoint

Image 4: Apparent Consumption – Japan (M bags)

Source: Japan Coffee Association, hEDGEpoint

In Summary

This week, we saw the release of coffee inventory figures for Japan and the European Union. We started by examining the Japanese data, and in the following week, we'll focus on EU numbers.

Notably, Japan saw a substantial reduction in coffee stocks from January to April due to lower imports, deviating 18% from the average, though July showed a slight increase.

June imports fell by 10%, signaling potential shifts in consumer preferences or supply chain issues. In the 2022-2023 cycle, Japan's imports plunged by 23%, far below the estimated figure, reflecting weaker demand than expected. The apparent consumption estimate for October 2022 to June 2023 declined by 4.3%, highlighting challenges in the Japanese coffee market.

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Natália Gandolphi
[email protected]
Reviewed by Thaís Italiani
[email protected]
www.hedgepointglobal.com

Disclaimer

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