Oct 27

Coffee Weekly Report - 2023 10 27

After a decline, African countries have resurged, increasing their global market share from 9% in 16/17 to 12% in 22/23, projecting a notable expansion to 20M bags in the 23/24 cycle.
This growth reflects not only a robust recovery but also underscores Africa's vital contribution to the global coffee dynamics, marking a new chapter of influence.
Uganda stands out, increasing its market share from 14% in 90/91 to an impressive 35% in 22/23, solidifying its position and driving Africa's renewed prominence. In August, Uganda achieved a significant milestone, exporting 744 thousand bags, totaling 6.14M bags in the 22/23 cycle, demonstrating a 5% year-over-year increase and emphasizing the country's resilience and sustained capacity.
The diversified coffee production, with robusta dominating at 75-80%, highlights Uganda's crucial contribution to the global coffee market.

As we delve into the intricacies of the 23/24 coffee market cycle, it's imperative to grasp the evolving supply dynamics, particularly in Africa, which has witnessed a surge in prominence in recent years. In 1990, African nations contributed nearly 20% to the global coffee supply, but their share dwindled as Asian origins, notably Vietnam, gained prominence in both cultivation area and yield.

However, a pivotal shift occurred from the 16/17 cycle onwards, with African countries reclaiming lost market share, escalating from 9% in 16/17 to a notable 12% by 22/23. Projections for the 23/24 cycle are even more promising, anticipating a substantial upswing to 20 million bags, marking the highest level since the 96/97 cycle.

Beyond the conventional coffee-producing origins, such as Ethiopia, Uganda emerges as a standout player in this narrative. Remarkably, Uganda's market share within Africa skyrocketed from 14% in 90/91 to an impressive 35% in 22/23, underscoring its pivotal role in the evolving coffee landscape. This resurgence underscores Uganda's transformative journey, positioning it as a significant player and contributing to the broader recovery of African coffee on the global stage.

Uganda's prominence continues its ascent, evidenced by robust coffee exports, notably reaching 744K bags in August. In the broader 22/23 cycle, the nation shipped 6.14M bags, reflecting a substantial 5% YoY surge – taking the opportunity of lower Vietnamese presence on the global stage. Uganda's coffee landscape is diverse, producing and exporting both robusta and arabica varieties. Robusta dominates, constituting 75-80% of the country's coffee output, with exports primarily comprising of Screen 15 and below robustas, averaging over 60% of the volume.

As we look ahead to 23/24, favorable weather conditions during most development stages bode well for both arabica and robusta areas. However, August and September's below-average NDVI levels raise the possibility of a heightened volume of lower-screen varieties in the main crop, spanning October to September in Central, East, and Center-North regions, and the secondary crop in Masaka, West, and Southwest regions. This nuanced outlook emphasizes Uganda's intricate coffee story and its resilience amid changing environmental dynamics.

In the 23/24 coffee market cycle, Africa, once overshadowed by Asian origins, is resurging. From contributing 20% in 1990, the continent's share dwindled but rebounded from 9% in 16/17 to 12% in 22/23, with a projected rise to 20 million bags – the highest since 96/97.

Uganda, notably, surged from 14% in 90/91 to 35% in 22/23, marking its transformative role. Amidst this, Uganda's robust coffee exports hit 744K bags in August, totaling 6.14M bags in 22/23, a 5% YoY increase. With robusta dominating at 75-80%, Uganda's coffee resilience and diverse landscape paint a promising yet nuanced picture for the upcoming 23/24 cycle.

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Coffee Weekly Report - 2023 10 27

Uganda's Growing Coffee Influence

Image 1: Coffee Production and Global Market Share – African Countries

Image 2: Coffe Production and African Market Share – Uganda

Image 3: NDVI Anomaly – Uganda Arabica Areas (Drugar)

Image 5: Coffee Exports – Uganda (‘000 bags)

Image 4: NDVI Anomaly – Uganda Robusta Areas

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