Oct 27

Coffee Weekly Report - 2023 10 27

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  • After a decline, African countries have resurged, increasing their global market share from 9% in 16/17 to 12% in 22/23, projecting a notable expansion to 20M bags in the 23/24 cycle.

  • This growth reflects not only a robust recovery but also underscores Africa's vital contribution to the global coffee dynamics, marking a new chapter of influence.

  • Uganda stands out, increasing its market share from 14% in 90/91 to an impressive 35% in 22/23, solidifying its position and driving Africa's renewed prominence. In August, Uganda achieved a significant milestone, exporting 744 thousand bags, totaling 6.14M bags in the 22/23 cycle, demonstrating a 5% year-over-year increase and emphasizing the country's resilience and sustained capacity.

  • The diversified coffee production, with robusta dominating at 75-80%, highlights Uganda's crucial contribution to the global coffee market.

Uganda's Growing Coffee Influence

As we delve into the intricacies of the 23/24 coffee market cycle, it's imperative to grasp the evolving supply dynamics, particularly in Africa, which has witnessed a surge in prominence in recent years. In 1990, African nations contributed nearly 20% to the global coffee supply, but their share dwindled as Asian origins, notably Vietnam, gained prominence in both cultivation area and yield.
However, a pivotal shift occurred from the 16/17 cycle onwards, with African countries reclaiming lost market share, escalating from 9% in 16/17 to a notable 12% by 22/23. Projections for the 23/24 cycle are even more promising, anticipating a substantial upswing to 20 million bags, marking the highest level since the 96/97 cycle.

Beyond the conventional coffee-producing origins, such as Ethiopia, Uganda emerges as a standout player in this narrative. Remarkably, Uganda's market share within Africa skyrocketed from 14% in 90/91 to an impressive 35% in 22/23, underscoring its pivotal role in the evolving coffee landscape. This resurgence underscores Uganda's transformative journey, positioning it as a significant player and contributing to the broader recovery of African coffee on the global stage.

Image 1: Coffee Production and Global Market Share – African Countries 

Source: hEDGEpoint

Image 2: Coffe Production and African Market Share – Uganda 

Source: hEDGEpoint

Uganda's prominence continues its ascent, evidenced by robust coffee exports, notably reaching 744K bags in August. In the broader 22/23 cycle, the nation shipped 6.14M bags, reflecting a substantial 5% YoY surge – taking the opportunity of lower Vietnamese presence on the global stage. Uganda's coffee landscape is diverse, producing and exporting both robusta and arabica varieties. Robusta dominates, constituting 75-80% of the country's coffee output, with exports primarily comprising of Screen 15 and below robustas, averaging over 60% of the volume.

As we look ahead to 23/24, favorable weather conditions during most development stages bode well for both arabica and robusta areas. However, August and September's below-average NDVI levels raise the possibility of a heightened volume of lower-screen varieties in the main crop, spanning October to September in Central, East, and Center-North regions, and the secondary crop in Masaka, West, and Southwest regions. This nuanced outlook emphasizes Uganda's intricate coffee story and its resilience amid changing environmental dynamics.

Image 3: NDVI Anomaly – Uganda Arabica Areas (Drugar)

Source: USDA

Image 5: Coffee Exports – Uganda (‘000 bags)

Image 4: NDVI Anomaly – Uganda Robusta Areas

Source: USDA

Source: Uganda Coffee Development Authority

In Summary

In the 23/24 coffee market cycle, Africa, once overshadowed by Asian origins, is resurging. From contributing 20% in 1990, the continent's share dwindled but rebounded from 9% in 16/17 to 12% in 22/23, with a projected rise to 20 million bags – the highest since 96/97.

Uganda, notably, surged from 14% in 90/91 to 35% in 22/23, marking its transformative role. Amidst this, Uganda's robust coffee exports hit 744K bags in August, totaling 6.14M bags in 22/23, a 5% YoY increase. With robusta dominating at 75-80%, Uganda's coffee resilience and diverse landscape paint a promising yet nuanced picture for the upcoming 23/24 cycle.

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Natália Gandolphi
Reviewed by Lívea Coda


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