Part of the reason that concerns are more abated when compared to the same period in 2020 is that soil moisture levels are not at the same low levels as seen prior to the 21/22 crop failure.
Charts #3 and #4 show soil moisture levels for 2023 and the previous 6 years, with 2020 marking the lowest level for mid-November in both regions. Comparatively, 2023 is in the middle of the pack, closer to the historical averages.
Nonetheless, it’s important to note that soil moisture levels have decreased during a time when they should have increased, and there’s less leeway for Cerrado than for South of Minas Gerais (or the remaining main-producing regions, for that matter).
In this sense, the current weather scenario does not pose any major threats to the 24/25 crop, provided that it does not remain with the same conditions for long. Weather forecast models suggest that rains will return in the next 7-day period, also alleviating the warm temperatures. Starting on November 17 through November 24, temperatures can still be 4-6 °C higher than average in Cerrado, and 1-4 °C in other regions. Starting on November 25, the extent of the current heatwave is expected to lose some strength.