The coffee industry faced weather anomalies in the last quarter of 2023, largely influenced by the El Niño pattern that dominated the main coffee producing regions in Brazil. Unprecedented temperatures and irregular rainfall characterized this period, impacting production and creating a ripple effect on the coffee market.
In South Minas Gerais, temperatures soared to record levels, disrupting the usual climate patterns. Despite the El Niño pattern subsiding by the beginning of 2024, temperatures remained above average, posing a continued challenge for coffee cultivation. The water reserves built in 2023 helped alleviate the impact of lower rainfall in November and December, maintaining average year-end levels. However, the outlook for 2024 is concerning, with rainfall levels currently reported to be below average, adding pressure to an already precarious situation.
Cerrado faced a different set of challenges, experiencing consistently lower rainfall throughout the year. By the last quarter, cumulative rainfall volumes were already below those recorded in 2021. Coupled with temperatures at a 10-year high, the region faced increased pressure on coffee production. As the new year began, optimism was scarce, with cumulative rainfall levels reported to be 30% below normal, setting a less optimistic tone for the upcoming crop cycle when compared to the post-flowering period.
