With the recent release of export data from Brazil, China is emerging as a significant importer of Brazilian coffee, maintaining its 6th position in January, consistent with its ranking at the end of 2023. This report delves into the essential aspects of China's coffee market, shedding light on anticipated long-term shifts based on the country's past trends over the last 5 years.
At present, China constitutes 4% of Brazil's coffee exports, in contrast to the U.S. at 15% and Japan at 6%. The surge in China's coffee imports began in the latter half of 2023, initially driven by a diversion of imports from Ethiopia due to differentials, as discussed in previous reports. Still, the country is almost evenly matched with Japan, one of the main traditional coffee destinations, and is yet to be considered as a main destination itself – why is that?
First, it is crucial to consider China's production trend. Until approximately the 12/13 cycle, the country maintained a relatively balanced output and consumption, even though its coffee imports were smaller. China initially became a net importer in the 10/11 cycle. Second, and perhaps most importantly, per capita coffee consumption in China is comparatively low. On average, an individual in China consumes 0.21kg of coffee annually. In contrast, the global average is 1.3kg per person per year, marking a six-fold difference between China and the global average.
