In 2024, coffee prices correlate with other commodities, but arabica and robusta show distinct performances. Arabica, starting on a downtrend, aims to match robusta's gains. Arabica's curve, compared to a year ago, now has an earlier inflection point, aligning with July deliveries and expectations of higher output for the 24/25 crop in Brazil.
Robusta's curve, currently in backwardation, contrasts with a year ago when the 6th contract marked the inflection point, initially responding to seasonality. Looking forward, robusta's peak supply is expected in March, gradually decreasing, while arabica's seasonal index highlights May and July. The New York future curve reflects caution for the initial supply but a slightly optimistic outlook for the second, with the trend itself yet unaffected by certified stocks in NY.