May 24 / Natália Gandolphi

Coffee Weekly Report - 2024 05 24

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  • Conab's second assessment for the 24/25 Brazilian coffee crop projects 42.11M bags for arabica and 16.71M bags for conilon.

  • Arabica production rose by 3% from the previous report and is 8% higher than last year. However, in Minas Gerais, climatic fluctuations resulted in uneven blooming and fruit maturation.

  • Conversely, conilon production was revised downward by 626K bags. Despite challenges, such as irregular rainfall and high temperatures in Espírito Santo, advanced practices promise a favorable yield. Bahia and Rondônia also faced irregular weather conditions.

  • The report bucks downward reduction expectations prevalent in the market, providing a relatively optimistic outlook when it comes to arabica. However, given the incipient stage of fieldwork, a comprehensive understanding of the crop's potential will only emerge in the following weeks.

Surprise in Conab’s crop update

This week, Conab released its second assessment of the 24/25 crop in Brazil: 42.11M bags for arabica, and 16.71M bags for conilon. The report was a bit surprising when it comes to arabica, given the increase compared to the previous report (+1.4M bags, or +3%). Production is now 3.2M, or 8% above last year’s output.

Conab noted that the coffee crop cycle in Minas Gerais has experienced various climatic fluctuations since September 2023. The first rains, in September, were sparse, followed by a dry period until November. From December 2023 to February 2024, regular rains and mild temperatures favored crop development. However, from February to March, rainfall significantly decreased in some regions.

In South Minas, there was an increase in the production area due to the recovery of crops affected by previous frosts, but the blooming was very irregular, causing uneven fruit maturation. In the Cerrado Mineiro, despite good vegetative conditions, high temperatures and concentrated rains resulted in unevenness and fruit drop. In Zona da Mata, unequal and early blooming due to drought led to a harvest with both green and dry cherries simultaneously, complicating the harvesting process.

Therefore, even pointing out these issues, Conab increased arabica output (resulting exclusively from an improvement in yields).

Figure 1: Brazil – Arabica Production – Conab (M bags)

Source: Conab

Figure 2: Brazil – Arabica Yields – Conab (bags/ha)

Source: Conab

As for conilon, despite the figure itself being lower than the market average, Conab decreased the total volume when compared to the previous assessment (-626K bags).

The agency noted that in Espírito Santo, the coffee crop faced climatic challenges, including irregular and low rainfall combined with high temperatures. Still, the use of advanced agricultural practices and improved clonal varieties has led to a promising yield forecast despite the adverse conditions.

Coffee farms in Bahia, particularly in the Atlantic region, are predominantly family-run, achieving high productivity due to effective ferti-irrigation and semi-mechanized harvesting, although the noted recent climate conditions have caused initial low yields and quality issues.

When it comes to Rondônia, Conab highlighted that the region has benefited from the adoption of high-yielding clonal varieties, resulting in improved uniformity and productivity, though the region has experienced unfavorable climatic conditions, necessitating increased irrigation efforts to support crop development.

Figure 3: Brazil – Conilon Production – Conab (M bags)

Source: Conab

Figure 4: Brazil – Conilon Yields – Conab (bags/ha)

Source: Conab

In Summary

Conab's second assessment for the 24/25 Brazilian coffee crop estimates 42.11M bags for arabica and 16.71M bags for conilon.

Arabica production increased by 3% from the previous report and is 8% higher than last year. In Minas Gerais, climatic fluctuations caused uneven blooming and fruit maturation.

Conilon production was revised down by 626K bags. Espírito Santo faced irregular rainfall and high temperatures but used advanced practices for a promising yield, according to the agency. Irregular weather conditions were also noted in Bahia and Rondônia.

Conab’s report went, in a way, against the current wave of downward reduction expectations – that have reflected a larger share of smaller screens in the early stages of harvest. Still, fieldwork itself is quite incipient, and a clearer view of the full crop potential will only be achieved over the next weeks.

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Natália Gandolphi
Reviewed by Lívea Coda


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