This week, Conab released its second assessment of the 24/25 crop in Brazil: 42.11M bags for arabica, and 16.71M bags for conilon. The report was a bit surprising when it comes to arabica, given the increase compared to the previous report (+1.4M bags, or +3%). Production is now 3.2M, or 8% above last year’s output.
Conab noted that the coffee crop cycle in Minas Gerais has experienced various climatic fluctuations since September 2023. The first rains, in September, were sparse, followed by a dry period until November. From December 2023 to February 2024, regular rains and mild temperatures favored crop development. However, from February to March, rainfall significantly decreased in some regions.
In South Minas, there was an increase in the production area due to the recovery of crops affected by previous frosts, but the blooming was very irregular, causing uneven fruit maturation. In the Cerrado Mineiro, despite good vegetative conditions, high temperatures and concentrated rains resulted in unevenness and fruit drop. In Zona da Mata, unequal and early blooming due to drought led to a harvest with both green and dry cherries simultaneously, complicating the harvesting process.
Therefore, even pointing out these issues, Conab increased arabica output (resulting exclusively from an improvement in yields).
