May 31 / Natália Gandolphi

Coffee Weekly Report - 2024 05 31

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  • The European Coffee Federation reported a 700,000-bag increase in coffee stocks by April compared to March, despite Q1 imports being 300,000 bags below average.

  • Brazil’s shipments surged to 43% of the EU's total in the first half of the 23/24 cycle, offsetting declines from Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, whose combined share fell from 33% to 26%.

  • While washed arabica imports from Central America and Mexico consistently decreased, these losses were counterbalanced by higher shares of Colombian and Peruvian coffees.

  • Looking at the cumulative figures for 23/24 (Oct/23-Mar/24), EU imports remain 1.5M bags below average and 1.8M bags lower than last year, although consumption is 200,000 bags above the historical average.

  • Similar trends are observed globally, with Brazil filling gaps left by traditional suppliers. In the U.S., the U.K., China, and Japan, Brazil’s market share increased significantly, with declines from Vietnam, Indonesia, and India.

Destination analysis through the EU lens

The European Coffee Federation has released stocks data up to April, showing an addition of 700,000 bags compared to March. With import data available until March, the decrease in the first quarter is mirrored in both stocks and imports. However, April is expected to change the landscape and explain the stock recovery, given that cumulative imports in Q1 were approximately 300,000 bags below the average.

In the first half of the 2023/24 cycle, Brazil alone accounted for 43% of the bloc’s imports, compared to 35% during the same period in 2022/23. This increase helped offset the decrease in imports from Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, which collectively fell from 33% to 26%. For washed arabica, imports from Central America and Mexico consistently decreased, but this was counterbalanced by a higher share of Colombian and Peruvian coffees.

Looking at the perspective for the 23/24 cycle (Oct/23 to Mar/24), cumulative imports in the EU are 1.5 million bags below the average levels and 1.8 million bags less than the volume reported during the same period in the last cycle. On the other hand, apparent consumption is 200,000 bags above the historical average.

Figure 1: European Union Green Coffee Imports (M bags)

Source: Eurostat, Hedgepoint

Figure 2: European Coffee Federation Stocks (M bags)

Source: ECF

In other destinations, Brazil is also taking up a larger market share, filling a gap left by other countries.

Similar to the situation observed in the European Union, the United States has reported a smaller share of robusta intake by traditional origins (Vietnam, Indonesia, India) and also a smaller participation by Central America and Mexico, whereas South American origins have remained steady, cumulatively.

Brazil also took up a larger share in the United Kingdom: 63% of all imports in the 23/24 cycle so far, vs. 26% in 22/23! Vietnam, Indonesia, and India decreased from 34% to 15%.

China followed a similar trend as well: Brazil represents 52% of all imports in 23/24, alongside other South American origins (24% vs. 14%), whereas imports from traditional robusta origins decreased from 22% to 11% this cycle.

In contrast, Japan sees a decrease mostly in Colombian and Peruvian supplies (the opposite of the trend seen in the EU). Brazil takes up 40% (vs. 37% last cycle), robusta origins take up 34% (vs. 33%).

Figure 3: European Union – Imports by Country/Group (‘000 bags)

Source: Eurostat, Hedgepoint

In Summary

The increase in ECF stocks shows that seasonality is kicking in, as well as changes in trade flow when compared to the second half of 2023.

Since stock levels in destinations are still far from average, they remain as a bullish point in the short-term to medium-term. Once destinations start to decrease benchmark rates, and given that spreads are shorter, these same stocks are expected to become a bearish fundamental in the medium to long-term.

It’s also important to note that Brazil has exceeded previous exports’ records in 2024, by taking up a larger share in destination imports across the board – with the most notable changes occurring in the European Union, United Kingdom, and China.

Weekly Report — Coffee

Written by Natália Gandolphi
Reviewed by Laleska Moda


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