Sep 5 / Luiz Fernando Roque

Crop Forecast: Corn Brazil - 2025 09 05

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"Brazil's corn crop raised to 138.2 million tons."

Brazil's corn crop raised to 138.2 million tons

With a positive adjustment to the “second crop”, Brazil's corn crop is raised to 138.2 million tons

Brazil's 2024/25 corn crop has been revised by Hedgepoint, which now indicates a total production of 138.2 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons regarding the previous estimate (134.5 million tons).

The progress of the second crop harvest revealed high average yields in several of the main producing states in the center-south of the country, which added to a larger area led to a record crop in the so-called "safrinha".

The positive weather recorded for most of the second crop's development offset the risk brought about by the delay in sowing this season, which began and ended in a period considered to be less than ideal due to the delays recorded in planting and harvesting soybeans (which, in the end, also benefited from the weather). As a result, the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Goiás recorded yields of more than 100 bags per hectare, guaranteeing a large production.


Brazil Corn - Area, Yield and Production (M ha, ton/ha, M ton)

Source: Hedgepoint, USDA



Harvest work for this super crop is in its final straight, which indicates that almost all of Brazil's corn production for the 2024/25 season is already available on the market. As of August 29, 97% of the second crop in the Center-South of the country had been harvested.


Corn Brazil - Harvest Progress (until Aug 29)

                                                                                                                                              Source: Safras, Hedgepoint



As for marketing, current data points to slower sales by producers regarding the same period last year and the average of the last five crops for this period, which sends a warning signal to the selling end due to the large volume available for trading in the coming months. By the beginning of August, approximately 43% of the second corn crop had been marketed. In the same period last year, the percentage was 48%, while the five-crop average for the period is 50%.


Corn Brazil - Farmer Sales - Second Crop (until August first week)

                                                                                                                                              Source: Safras, Hedgepoint



On the demand side, we would highlight the strong growth in corn consumption for ethanol production this season, with new industries coming on stream. Hedgepoint's estimate points to a demand of 23.7 million tons of corn for ethanol production in the 2024/25 season, a significant increase on the 17.4 million tons in the previous season.

Regarding exports, the delays in shipments due to the delay in harvesting the second crop are beginning to be overcome, with August showing a strong pace of exports. In addition, September already has a large volume of export registrations.


Corn Brazil - Monthly Exports (M ton)

                                                                                                      Source: MDIC, Hedgepoint

Market Intelligence - Grains & Oilseeds

Written by Luiz Fernando Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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