Mar 24 / Luiz Fernando Roque

Crop Forecast: Corn Brazil - 2025/26

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"Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop is projected at 140.3 million tons."

Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop is projected at 140.3 million tons

Increase in planted area should ensure corn production similar to that recorded in the 2024/25 season


Hedgepoint estimates Brazilian corn production for the 2025/26 season at 140.3 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the 2024/25 season (140.5 million tons).

The Brazilian planted area is projected at 22.061 million hectares, up 2.6% from the previous season (21.505 million hectares). Meanwhile, the average yield of Brazilian crops is estimated at 6,361 kilograms per hectare, a 2.6% decline compared to the 2024/25 season (6,533 kilograms per hectare).

Although lower average yields are initially expected for Brazilian crops compared to those recorded in the 2024/25 season, favorable weather over the next 3 to 4 months could lead to upward revisions in estimates, potentially resulting in a new record harvest.


Brazil | Corn | Area, Yield and Production (M ha, ton/ha, M ton)

                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: Hedgepoint, USDA, Conab



Regarding acreage, the trend points to further growth, driven primarily by increased domestic consumption resulting from the expansion of corn-based ethanol production in the country, with new industrial plants set to begin operations in 2026 and 2027.

Given this increase, Brazilian producers are showing greater interest in corn, as they are less dependent on exports to balance supply and demand. Even with the delays in the soybean harvest, which are causing delays in planting the second corn crop, producers are showing interest in expanding corn acreage in the central region of the country.

Regarding the progress of second-crop planting, as of March 20, 91.3% of the country’s corn acreage had been planted. During the same period last year, planting reached 95%, while the average for the last five harvests during this period is 91.6%.


Corn | Brazil | Second Crop | Planting Progress (in %)

                                                                                                                                              Source: Safras, Hedgepoint

Corn | Brazil | Second Crop | Planting Progress (in %)

                                                                                                                       Source: Safras, Hedgepoint



When we look at the weather forecasts for the next two weeks, the maps indicate a decrease in rainfall across most of the country’s central region between March 23 and April 5, which should be favorable for the progress and completion of planting activities.


Accumulated Precipitation Forecast – 1 to 7 days (mm)

                                                                                                                                Source: NOAA

Accumulated Precipitation Forecast – 8 to 14 days (mm)

                                                                                                                                Source: NOAA



Looking a little further ahead, the precipitation anomaly map indicates below-average rainfall in the states of the country’s central region throughout April, which raises concerns for the initial development of a large portion of the crops.


Accumulated Precipitation Anomaly Forecast – April (mm)

                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Tropicaltidbits



Looking ahead to May and June, the maps indicate that rainfall will return to normal in the central states, once again bringing favorable conditions for crop development.


Accumulated Precipitation Anomaly Forecast – May (mm)

                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Tropicaltidbits

Accumulated Precipitation Anomaly Forecast – June (mm)

                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Tropicaltidbits



Moving forward, the weather will be a determining factor in the consolidation of crop yields and the resulting size of Brazil’s corn production in the 2025/26 season.


Market Intelligence - Grains & Oilseeds

Written by Luiz Fernando Roque
Luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com

Reviewed by Thaís Italiani
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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