Finally, the last input considered in our models is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI is used to quantify vegetation greenness and is useful in understanding vegetation density and assessing changes in plant health (USGS). Though not perfect, the measure has a good correlation with yields.
Several important blocs of states in Brazil, despite being worse than last year, have remained close to the 20Y average throughout the season. Examples are Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and Paraná. Of course, this is true in the aggregate, but may not be true when speaking of specific regions within these states.
The extremes (MATOPIBA and Rio Grande do Sul) had a very poor start to the season but recovered once we approached January and weather conditions improved.