Apr 28 / Luiz Fernando Roque

Crop Forecast: Soybean Brazil - Crop 2025/26

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"Hedgepoint now projects a Brazilian soybean crop of 181 million tons in 2025/26."

Hedgepoint has once again raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop, now estimated at 181 million tons

Surprising average yields drive production past the 180-million-ton mark


Hedgepoint’s new estimate for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop points to a record crop of 181 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons from the previous estimate (179.5 million tons in January 2025).

The planted area was slightly raised to 48.827 million hectares (48.817 million hectares in January), while the average yield of Brazilian crops was raised to 3,708 kg/ha (3,677 kg/ha in January).

The new figures also indicate improvements over previous records set in the 2024/25 season. Production for the 2025/26 season increased by 9.4 million tons compared to 2024/25 (171.6 million tons), or +5.47%. Meanwhile, the average yield of Brazilian crops increased by 108 kg/ha (3,600 kg/ha in 2024/25), or +3%. The planted area increased by 1.149 million hectares (47.678 million hectares in 2024/25), or +2.4%.


The increase regarding the production estimate compared to January stemmed mainly from adjustments to expected average yields for major producing states, with increases in yields in states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Bahia, and a decrease in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

The favorable weather conditions recorded throughout most of the crop development period in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions resulted in an extremely favorable environment, leading to the consolidation of very high yields that exceeded initial estimates. These yields ultimately offset, at the national level, the production losses recorded in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that once again suffered from problems stemming from low- nd humidity that affected part of the crops during the first months of 2026. However, it is important to note that, even with these new challenges, production in Rio Grande do Sul will exceed that of the previous crop, making a significant contribution to the establishment of a new record crop in Brazil.


Brazil Soybean | Area, Yield and Production (M ha, ton/ha, M ton) | USDA vs. CONAB vs. HPGM

Source: Hedgepoint, USDA, Conab

Market Intelligence - Grains & Oilseeds

Written by Luiz Fernando Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com

Revised by Thaís Italiani
Thais.Italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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