One of the most important indicators for the biodiesel industry is the BO-HO spread, a measure that represents the costs and margins for producing biofuels and renewable fuels.
The greater the spread, the higher the cost of producing biodiesel from soybean oil, which consequently increases the price of RINs. Conversely, a smaller spread due to the low values of soybean oil makes RINs cheaper. Current market reflects the latter.
Since July of this year, a significant decline has been observed in the BO-HO relationship, reflecting market fundamentals in both the agricultural and energy complex.
![](https://lwfiles.mycourse.app/649cb3acac2c0641db4c86b2-public/707fbe987ac81254be2bada4b6f5d18f.png)
One
reason is the expectation of record soybean oil production in Brazil's current
crop (2023/24). The greater availability of the product results in downward
pressure on its prices, as shown in the chart above. Another reason is that
heating oil prices have fallen with less intensity, reflecting lower stocks in
the United States and the resilience of its economy.
Meanwhile,
palm oil, a substitute for soybean oil, also experiences higher supply in the
market, offering little support for the appreciation of soybean oil. Therefore,
in the coming weeks, if heating oil remains resilient, possibly reflecting OPEC
measures, there is likely to be a further reduction of the BO-HO spread.