Feb 12 / Victor Arduin

Energy Weekly Report - 2024 02 12

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"The global balance continues to tighten, with global demand for natural gas expected to grow by 2.5%, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)"

Importance of American LNG in the Global Supply

  • Due to the increase in natural gas production in recent years, much of it from shale gas exploration, the United States has achieved the status of the largest exporter of LNG (liquefied natural gas), surpassing countries such as Qatar and Australia.
  • In the coming years, new projects should allow for an increase of 63 million tons in production. However, with the decision to suspend new export licenses, four projects will be impacted, which could result in lower production capacity in the future or delays in project delivery.
  • Lower export capacity in the coming years is a risk for the European market, which is heavily dependent on LNG imports to meet its domestic demand.

Introduction

Last month, the White House decided to suspend licenses for LNG export projects. This measure, in addition to responding to environmentalists' concerns about pollution from burning natural gas, seeks to bring greater stability to the country's domestic prices, which are increasingly subject to global risks.

The country currently has seven operational terminals with a production capacity of 87 million tons of LNG per year, a significant amount capable of supplying countries like Germany and France. With the recent changes, our analysis will discuss the possible impacts of this decision on the global natural gas market.

Image 1: Main LNG Exporters (Metric Tons)


          Source: Bloomberg

Image 2:  USA - Gas in Underground Storage in Operation


             Source: EIA

No significant impact on the LNG market in the short term

In the short term, the effects will be limited, as this is only a freeze on new export projects, which does not significantly alter the flow of exports in the country. However, if this measure is extended, especially considering the continued growth in LNG consumption globally, the European and Asian markets - the main destinations for American exports - will be significantly impacted. In December, more than 87% of American LNG exports went to these markets. Another possible outcome would be a recovery of the Russian LNG market in Europe, something not desired at the moment by the continent's leaders, who are seeking to support the Ukrainian war effort.

While the suspension could help reduce prices in the short term, it may have the opposite effect in the long term, as it will discourage investment. Some analyses quote amounts of around US$ 100 billion in 2023. Natural gas is an important energy commodity in the context of the energy transition, resulting in growing demand in recent years.

Image 3: USA - Net LNG Exports

Economic activity should increase LNG consumption in 2024

Source: Refinitiv

The global balance continues to tighten, with global demand for natural gas expected to grow by 2.5%, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). As prices continue to converge towards more moderate levels, following a strong appreciation in 2022 due to Western sanctions against Russia, a further increase in demand for LNG is expected. For example, in 2024, the Henry Hub spot price is -20% and the Dutch TTF -48% when compared to levels in 2023. With cheaper natural gas, it becomes more economically advantageous compared to other energy commodities, which encourages its consumption.

Another factor that should help boost LNG consumption is a less restrictive monetary environment. Both the US and Europe are forecasting interest rate cuts this year, which should strengthen their countries' industries and consequently increase electricity consumption. For Europe, the main source of energy is natural gas, much of which is brought in via LNG vessels from the United States. Therefore, restrictions on American exports can affect the economy of the continent in the long term.

Image 4: Main Natural Gas References

Source: Refinitiv

Brazilian distributors adopt Henry Hub indexation to stabilize costs in the face of volatility

Due to the increase in LNG exports from the United States, American natural gas is becoming increasingly influential on the world market. While Brent and WTI, as commodities more sensitive to geopolitical events, often experience volatility that drives prices upwards, the Henry Hub, as a reference point for natural gas, demonstrates greater stability.

For this reason, a growing number of Brazilian distributors are opting for the Henry Hub price index, seeking to diversify volatility between different assets, such as a mix of 80% Brent and 20% Henry Hub, for example. At least 14 state utilities already have part of their contracts indexed to the Henry Hub.

However, prices continue to be exposed to other sources of volatility, including regulations in the United States and weather events. For example, periods of extreme cold tend to boost natural gas prices, due to increased demand for heating in the country, while it can also freeze gas wells, reducing supply.

Now, with the recent changes in LNG export authorizations, if upheld for a long period, a new factor comes into play for distributors to consider.

In Summary

The effects of the recent White House decision will be very small on the LNG market. At the moment, water levels in the Panama Canal offer more risk to the LNG trade than changes to export licensing in the United States.

Even so, it must be recognized that if this decision is prolonged, there will be a significant impact on the world balance sheet, especially for Europe, which depends on imports of American LNG.

Recently, prices have converged to lower levels after years of strong appreciation. Although this measure could help stabilize prices in the United States, other regions could face upward pressure with less LNG available on the market. This is all considering if the measure is not reversed in the coming months.

Weekly Report — Energy

Written by Victor Arduin
[email protected]
Reviewed by Natalia Gandolphi
[email protected]
www.hedgepointglobal.com

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by hEDGEpoint Global Markets LLC and its affiliates ("HPGM") exclusively for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of creating obligations or commitments with third parties, and is not intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to sell or buy any securities or investment products. HPGM and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that may result in direct or indirect damage of any kind. If you have any questions that are not resolved in the first instance of contact with the client ([email protected]), please contact our internal ombudsman channel ([email protected]) or 0800-878-8408 (for clients in Brazil only).

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