Apr 17 / Luiz Fernando Roque e Ignacio Espinola

Market Update - Soybeans and Corn - 2025 04 17

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New North American crop: planting has begun!

The start of the new North American corn and soybean crops has been made. Planting works is already underway in states across the US producing belt, and the weather is now becoming a key factor for the market. From now on, players will position themselves daily against the weather maps forecasting, the progress of planting and the development of the crops sown. Attention will also be paid to the weekly data on planting progress and crop conditions released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) every Monday.

Regarding corn, the machines began to advance in the first days of April, with the first planting data being released on April 7. According to the latest weekly update from the USDA, by April 13 planting had reached 4% of the expected area, while the previous week the percentage was 2%. In the same period last year, the percentage was 6%. The average for the last five crops for the period is 5%.

It's important to remember that the area to be sown with corn in the US in the 2025/26 season is expected to grow significantly regarding the previous season, which could result in a record crop if the weather helps. The USDA is likely to point to a potential production of more than 390 million tons in its monthly supply and demand report for May, which will be released on the 12th.


US Planting Progress - Corn

Source: USDA, Hedgepoint

US Planting Evolution - Corn (top 10 states in %)

                                                                                                                Source: USDA, Hedgepoint



Regarding soybean, planting works began a week after corn, with the first data being released on April 14. According to the USDA, by April 13 planting had reached 2% of the estimated area. In the same period last year, the percentage was 3%, while the average for the last five crops for the period is 2%.

Let's remember that, unlike corn, the US soybean area for the 2025/26 season is expected to fall significantly regarding the 2024/25 season, which should lead to a lower crop, even with good weather conditions.


US Planting Evolution - Soybeans 

Source: USDA, Hedgepoint

US Planting Evolution - Soybeans (top 10 states in %)

                                                                                                                Source: USDA, Hedgepoint


As commented, the weather is now becoming a decisive factor in the progress of planting works, the definition of areas and the development of soybean and corn crops in the North American producing belt.

The weather maps point to a period of high humidity over the center and south of the producing belt between April 17 and 23, which could hinder planting work in some states. The states of the Northern Plains, on the other hand, should see less humidity, which could make it easier for the machines to advance.

In the period between April 24 and 30, the rains will spread across the entire producing belt, with the highest accumulations again expected in the central and southern states.

Given the weather forecasts, we are likely to see delays in the progress of planting work in the second half of April, which could start to raise speculation about the size of the areas to be sown within the ideal window, affecting futures contracts in Chicago.


USA - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - April 17 to 23

Source: NOAA

USA - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - April 24 to 30

Source: NOAA


China and its current appetite for soybeans

The Asian giant released its most up-to-date import figures, showing the country imported 3.5 million tons of soybeans in March, which represents the lowest monthly volume in the last 17 months - falling outside the five-year range for the month. Despite this low figure, there is an expectation of a record appetite for purchases in the coming months. A record 31.3 million tons is expected for the period from April to June, driven by Brazil's large soybean crop. In fact, last week China bought 40 ships - approximately 2.5 million tons - of Brazilian soybean, scheduled for delivery between May and June.

In addition, countries such as Argentina, Uruguay and Ukraine are emerging as viable alternative suppliers, helping to reduce China's dependence on one or two sources.

Regarding origin, the recent trade war with the United States has also begun to change the dynamics of Chinese imports. The US imposed tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports, which provoked a retaliatory tariff of 125% from the Chinese government. This is already starting to affect trade patterns. In the last trading year, China reduced its dependence on soybean from the US, decreasing its share from 31% to 20% of total imports, or around 20.1 million tons. In contrast, purchases from Brazil increased from 62% to 74%.

Given the current tensions between the US and China, it seems likely that there will be another increase in Brazilian soybean imports. A possible decline in US exports could lead to increased stock levels, putting downward pressure on US futures and/or spot values, ultimately resulting in lower levels of flat prices.

Remember that the USDA's current estimate points to US soybean exports of 49.67 million tons for the current season. Of this amount, 4.5 million tons have already been registered for shipment, but have not yet been shipped. In addition, there are still 2.89 million tons to be registered in order to reach the USDA's export estimate. So, we can conclude that a large part of these amounts are "at risk" due to the tariffs, and cancellations may occur.

China - Monthly Soybean Imports (M Ton).

Source: China Customs

China - Accumulated Soybean Imports (in thousand tons)

Source: China Customs


Although the recent tariff war between the US, China and other global players has brought significant uncertainty to the market, expectations remain for a strong year in Chinese soybean imports. According to the USDA, China is expected to import 109 million tons of soybean this year - close to the 112 million tons imported last year.

China - Soybean Supply and Demand (M Ton)

Source: USDA

As mentioned earlier, if China has another strong year for soybean imports, its ending stocks should remain similar to last year's levels. However, this will only be possible if China increases its pace of purchases in the coming months in the face of the completion of the soybean harvest and an increase in the pace of exports in Brazil, which usually peaks between June and July.

Another indicator of China's growing demand is the current stock level at the ports, which has fallen close to the lower limit of the five-year range, now at 5.9 million tons. A recovery towards the 7 million tons area would not be surprising.

China - Soybean Stocks at Ports (in M Ton)

Source: China Customs


Market Intelligence - Grains & Oilseeds

Written by Luiz Fernando Roque and Ignacio Espinola
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
Ignacio.Espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thais Italiani
Thais.Italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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