May 23 / Luiz Fernando Roque

Market Update - Soybeans and Corn - 2025 05 23

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Planting of new soybean and corn crops progresses at a strong pace in the US


Soybean and corn planting work for the new season (2025/26) continues to progress at a strong pace in the US producing belt.

The favorable weather has allowed the machines to make good progress in the main producing states in recent weeks and has also ensured a very satisfactory initial development of the crops that have already been sown.

The pace of planting, in both soybean and corn, is above that recorded in the same period last year - when progress was considered good - and above the average of the last five crops for the period. Given this and the positive weather so far, we can conclude that the new North American crop is off to an excellent and very promising start, with the possibility of full yields and record crops. However, it's important to note that the soil moisture situation in states in the western and northwestern parts of the producing belt is less than ideal and lower than what we saw at the same time last season, which means there's a greater need for regular rainfall in these regions in the coming weeks. As a result, the states of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota should be given special attention regarding the weather in the coming weeks.


USA Drought Monitor - May 14, 2024

Source: NOAA

USA Drought Monitor - May 13, 2025

Source: NOAA



Regarding the progress of soybean planting, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), 66% of the area had been sown by May 18. The previous week, the percentage was 48%. In the same period last year, the percentage was 50%, while the average for the last five crops for the period is 53%.



US Planting Progress - Soybenans

Source: USDA, Hedgepoint

US Planting Progress - Soybeans (top 10 states and US - in %)

                                                                                                                Source: USDA, Hedgepoint



Regarding corn, the USDA indicates that as of May 18, 78% of the area had been sown. In the previous week, the percentage was 62%, while in the same period last year the percentage was 67%. The average for the last five crops for the period is 73%.


US Planting Progress - Corn

Source: USDA, Hedgepoint

US Planting Progress - Corn (top 10 states and US - in %)

                                                                                                                Source: USDA, Hedgepoint


The current weather situation points to a high yield potential for North American crops so far, which supports the USDA's initial sentiment of full corn and soybean crops, with probable record yields. However, it is important to note that we are only at the beginning of crop development and the weather will be a decisive factor in June, July and August. We would also like to point out that although the USDA expects record yields for soybeans, the trend is for a smaller crop this season, as the area planted with the oilseed is likely to fall significantly regarding last year. On the other hand, corn production could reach a new record, with the possibility of exceeding 400 million tons in the 2025/26 season due to the increase in area and possible record yields.

US Soybean – Production (M ton), Harvested Area (M ha) and Yield (ton/ha)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: USDA, Hedgepoint

US Corn – Production (M ton), Harvested Area (M ha) and Yield (ton/ha)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: USDA, Hedgepoint



Looking ahead to the weather in the coming weeks, the weather maps now point to a period of high humidity over the southern half of the producing belt between May 23 and 29, which could prevent the machines from making better progress. The northern half of the belt, on the other hand, should see less humidity, although the western states should receive slightly more significant amounts of rain. 

In the period between May 30 and June 5, the humidity should once again reach the entire producing belt more broadly, but with higher accumulations again expected for states in the southern half.


USA - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - May 23 to 29

Source: NOAA

USA - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - May 30 to June 5

Source: NOAA



Looking further ahead, the rainfall anomaly probability map points to fairly regular weather in the producing belt throughout June, with rainfall considered to be within the normal range for the period.

USA - Precipitation Anomaly - Probability (%) – June

         
         Source: NOAA


Market Intelligence - Grains & Oilseeds

Written by Luiz Fernando Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thais Italiani
Thais.Italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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