Jun 1
/
Luiz Fernando Roque
The start of the corn crop conditions in the US was disappointing. Does this really threaten the 2025/26 production potential?
Planting progresses towards the final straight in the US, but corn crop conditions are below expectations
Planting of the new North American corn crop is progressing towards the final straight in the main states of the producing belt.
The strong pace recorded since work began in the first week of April has been maintained nationwide, keeping the percentage above the average of the last five crops for the period. Despite this, the advance of the machines has lost momentum in some states in recent days, leading to a slower pace regarding the average. This opens up speculation regarding the final area to be sown in states such as Ohio, Indiana and Illinois, since sowing within the ideal window, which brings crop insurance coverage, may not be achieved in some areas destined for the cereal. This also opens up the possibility of unexpected transfers of areas from corn to soybeans, given that the window for the oilseed extends a little longer than that for corn.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), 87% of the corn area had been sown by May 25, an increase of 9 percentage points regarding the previous week (78%). In the same period last year, the percentage was 81%, while the average for the last five crops for the period is 85%.
Regarding delays, the state of Ohio stands out, with only 54% of the area sown so far, compared to 73% of the average for the last five crops.
In the state of Illinois, we see 82% of the area sown, while the average for the period is 87%. In the state of Indiana, the USDA indicates that 76% of the area has been sown, compared to 79% of the average.
US Planting Progress - Corn
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
US Planting Progress - Corn (top 10 states and US - in %)
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
In addition to the delays, it is also important to note that the first data on corn crop conditions, relating to May 25, point to lower levels than those recorded in the first data for 2024, relating to June 3, 2024. This indicates that the initial development of North American crops is not as good as that recorded last year. In view of this, we would remind you that the USDA is working with an estimate of record yields for this season, and that for this to be achieved, conditions naturally need to improve over the next 90 days.
According to the USDA, 68% of US corn crops are currently in good or excellent condition, 27% are in fair condition and 5% are in poor or very poor condition. Regarding the previous week and the same week last year, there is no data. But, as mentioned, on June 3, 2024 the first data showed 75% of crops in good or excellent condition, 21% in fair condition and 4% in poor or very poor condition.
US Crop Conditions - Corn (top 10 states and US - in %)
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
Moving on to soybean planting, the USDA indicates that as of May 25, 76% of the area had been planted, an increase of 10 percentage points regarding the previous week (66%). In the same period in 2024, the percentage was 66%. The average for the last five crops for the period is 68%.
The state of Ohio, as with corn, is also behind in sowing, with only 52% of the area planted (62% the five-crop average).
Unlike corn, the USDA has not yet released the first data on soybean crop conditions, which should take place in the first week of June.
US Planting Progress - Soybeans
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
US Planting Progress - Soybeans (top 10 states and US - in %)
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
Weather should be favorable for the development of crops in the producing belt in the coming weeks
Weather forecasts point to a period of rain hitting the entire producing belt between May 31 and June 6, which should be favorable for the initial development of soybean and corn crops. However, heavier rains in states such as Missouri and Arkansas could prevent planting work from progressing.
In the period between June 7 and 13, rainfall increased in the southern half of the producing belt, which, despite being favorable for the crops, could once again prevent the machines from making better progress.
USA - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - May 31 to June 6
Source: NOAA
USA - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - June 7 to 13
Source: NOAA
Regarding soil moisture in the North American producing belt, we noticed an improvement this past week compared to the previous week in the Northern Plains states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas and Nebraska), which is quite favorable given that these states deserve special attention this season due to the low humidity recorded so far.
USA Drought Monitor - May 20, 2025
Source: NOAA
USA Drought Monitor - May 27, 2025
Source: NOAA
Funds Position
Funds Position
At the moment, speculative funds are positioning themselves mainly for the new North American crop, working on expectations of area, weather, production and stocks. In the background, the trade war continues to bring uncertainty, increasing the volatility of positions.
On the soybean side, last week funds reduced their short positions from 19,000 contracts to 2,000 contracts, moving closer to a neutral position and the average of the last five crops for this season. The trend towards a smaller crop in the US due to the reduction in the planted area this season provides support for positions.
CBOT Soybeans - Spec. Funds Net position ('000 lots)
Source: CFTC, Hedgepoint
On the corn side, funds increased their short positions from 190,000 contracts to 216,000 contracts, recording a higher volume sold than at the same time in 2024 and close to the "low" of the last five crops. The trend towards a record crop given the strong growth in area this season is weighing on positions.
CBOT Corn - Spec. Funds Net position ('000 lots)
Source: CFTC, Hedgepoint
Market Intelligence - Grains & Oilseeds
Written by Luiz Fernando Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thais Italiani
Thais.Italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
Thais.Italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
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This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.