May 29 / Ignacio Espinola

Grains, Oilseeds and Livestock Weekly Report - 2024 05 29

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US Corn and Soybean S&D update

  • The USDA keeps with its last 5 year trend of showing a very optismitc first estimate of corn yields, as they brought again the expectation of a record 181 bu/ac yield.
  • In soybeans, the picture looks more realistic, and usually the USDA doesn't "miss" final soybean yields by much
  • Recent rains in Brazil might add logistic issues which could discourage potential cash buyers, moving their buying appetite into US origin, especially for PNW – Pacific Northwest.


The last few weeks have been extremely important for the US soybean and corn crops. Weather market is still playing a key role into the market and China starting to play a pivotal role in the cash side of the business, it is expected an active market for June.

US Corn – Export Sales ('000 mt)

Source: USDA


On one hand, a lower Brazilian Real and a strong level for beans futures on CBOT have reduced competitiveness from the US versus competitors in Brazil. Also, China buying more Brazilian origin, reducing its purchases from US in favor of Brazil should bring pressure in Chicago to adjust prices.

Below graph shows the US Soybean export pace. It is clear that current pace is below USDA estimates as well as below 22/23 figures.

US Soybean - Export Inspections ('000 mt)

Source: USDA

Corn and soybean scenarios for 24/25

For Corn, the USDA has projected a similar scenario than the previous crop, with a total supply at 16.9 M bu, similar export levels, almost unchanged domestic use consumption and feed, and a similar level of ending stocks. The corn story is now focused in South America, with the different weather issues and the big question mark on the final Argentinian and Brazilian crops.

This stable scenario contrasts with the Soybean scenario, where the USDA is expecting a +9% total supply, with an increase of 5% on the total demand and an increase on the final ending stocks, which indicates that there will be plenty of beans for the market to use and therefore we shouldn’t be surprised if we see many bear traders coming to play in the market after this last numbers.

US Supply and Demand – Soybean (M bu)

Source: USDA

 US Supply and Demand – Corn (M bu)

Source: USDA

Weather in the US remains normal, with some potential issues

With recent showers, there’s practically no area under drought or dryness. However, most producing states are expected to receive below average rainfall along with a warmer summer which could help the planting work but also could leave a dry soil for the development stage of the crops.

Accumulated Precipitation Monthly Anomaly (inches) Jun-Aug

Source: Tropical Tidbits

Temperature Anomaly (ºC) Jun-Aug

Source: Tropical Tidbits

In summary

US seems to have stable numbers and expectations for soybean, in line with the market in terms of numbers. For corn, the USDA seems to continue overestimating the numbers, keeping a very optimistic view.

On the weather side, for US there shouldn’t be any big issue, but we must keep an eye on the South America weather for the next weeks. There are still issues with floodings that could affect the crops, from yields to quality issues.

There's a rumor in the market that a few silos of beans were affected, increasing the humidity content into almost 30% (Max humidity content for export is 14%) which could either scare potential buyers, or increase FOB prices due to the use of drying machines to dry those beans.

Weekly Report — Grains and Oilseeds

Written by Ignacio Espinola
Reviewed by Thais Italiani


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