The last few weeks have been very beneficial to the Brazilian Corn harvest.
On one hand, the warm and dry weather is helping farmers to speed up with the harvest. Last numbers indicate that the harvest pace is at 21%, way above the usual 5% for this time of the year and it’s the fastest harvest pace in over a decade.
On the other hand, ANEC expects a 1.02 M mt of corn exports which is lower than previous estimates, at 1.24 M mt.
Winter Corn Harvest – Brazil (%)
Brazil Second Corn Crop – Area, Yield and Production (M ac, bu/ac, M bu)
The impressive pace of the Brazilian harvest in Paraná, where the harvest pace is at 29% and is expected to be the fastest harvest in history, also brought some clarity on the status of the crop. There’s a 52% of the corn harvest declared as “Good”, 31% as “average” and the remaining 17 as “bad”.
Not all of it is good news, even though we have an accelerated harvest pace, the dry weather that stimulates the maturation of the crops also reduces the productive potential. The expected second corn crop of 13.2M mt will have to be revised by the end of the month, where we should expect a reduction.
Brasil Corn – Monthly exports (mil ton)
We have a different story in the beans side.
On one hand we have ANEC raising the exports on June to 14.88M mt (+1.1M mt) versus last year 13.78M mt on the same period. Also, ABIOVE lowered their 2024 Brazilian soybean production forecast to 152.5M mt (-1.4M mt). USDA is at 153M mt.
On the other hand, China’s US bean imports for June have grown almost 3 times, at 1.27M mt versus 0.49 Mmt in the previous year. On the other hand, Brazil, with 8.8M mt exported, represents almost 90% of the total China imports, 10.22M mt
Soybean Brazil – Monthly Exports (M mt)
Moreover, considering the period from January-May, shipments from Brazil totaled 24.71Mmt to China, which is +23% compared to previous year. On the US side, the total amount comes at 10.85 Mmt, 34% down versus previous year. Finally, China imported 0.2Mmt of beans from Argentina for the same period.
Also, US is experiencing it`s slowest soybeans export program in 20 years, with farmers retaining the beans in hope for better prices.
Finally, China’s traders are taking advantage of Brazilians good prices and availability, which gives the country a competitive advantage versus the US.
Soybean China – Monthly Imports (M mt)
On the corn side, the good harvest pace and good overall conditions of the crop are great news for Brazil. Recent wheatear updates mention dry weather which should help continue with the accelerated harvest.
On the beans side, Brazilian soybean sales will probably continue growing due to the good prices compared to US origin. Moreover, China has been buying beans for June and July in a higher pace versus last years, which affects negatively the US as they are trying to sell their old crop, but it does affects positively Brazil, where the activity on the key ports of Paranaguá, Santos and Itaquí it’s on the peak levels of the season.
