Sep 3 / Victor Arduin

The Colombian peso has outperformed its peers: why and for how long?

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The Colombian peso has outperformed its peers: why and for how long?

  • Colombia's inflation rate reached 6.86% YoY in July, making it one of the highest in the region. In contrast, Brazil's inflation is at 4.5% YoY, and Mexico's at 5.57% YoY.
  • Recent data shows that prices in the South American country are gradually converging towards the 3% target, thanks to the restrictive monetary policy implemented in late 2021.
  • While monetary trends are positive, Colombia's fiscal situation is concerning. Markets are worried about the fiscal framework due to lower-than-expected revenues and spending pressures.
  • Our fair-value model shows that the Colombian peso has been overvalued compared to its peers. In the second half of the year, there may be a more pronounced depreciation of the currency due to fiscal challenges and lower commodity prices.

Introduction

Latin American currencies have experienced significant losses in recent weeks due to a combination of factors, including commodity price fluctuations and political instability. Unlike last year, Mexico and Brazil, which had previously performed well against other emerging countries, are now facing poor performance in 2024. While Mexico is implementing new reforms affecting the confidence of the market, Brazil has increased concerns regarding its fiscal situation.

In this context, Colombia has outperformed its regional peers. Despite having one of the highest inflation rates in the Latin America countries and facing macroeconomic challenges, its currency has depreciated by only -2,05% year-over-year (YoY), while other currencies, such as Brazil (-12,86%), Mexico (-15,13%), and Chile (-6,87%), have experienced more significant declines.

Diving deeper into the emerging market currency market, we'll now explore the prospects for the Colombian peso.

Image 1: Colombia – Inflation and Interest Rate (%)

Source: Refinitiv

Image 2: Colombia – Monthly Inflation (%)

Source: Refinitiv

Colombia has one of the highest inflations in the region

Colombia's inflation rate is one of the highest in the region, reaching YoY 6.86% in July. In comparison, Brazil has experienced a price increase of YoY 4,5%, while Mexico's is at YoY 5,57%. However, recent data indicates that prices in the South America country are gradually converging toward the target of 3%, a result of the restrictive monetary policy that has been in place since late 2021.

A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September could widen the interest rate differential between Colombia and U.S., potentially strengthening the Colombian Peso in the short term. This appreciation could help mitigate inflationary pressures in the economy. Also, the dollar's weakening may potentially favor emerging markets' currencies as well as those of commodity-exporting nations like Colombia.

While recent monetary trends provided positive signals for authorities, the fiscal situation presents a different picture. As with other countries in the region, market has expressed concerns about the fiscal framework, particularly given lower-than-expected revenues and spending pressures.

Image 3: Colombian Central National Government Deficit or Surplus (Billions of Pesos)

Source: Refinitiv

Despite fiscal consolidation challenge, the Colombian peso performs well in 2024

Despite significant fiscal challenges, Colombia’s currency has performed better than some of its peers in 2024. Our econometric analysis, which decomposes volatility in emerging markets and commodity-exporting nations, enabled us to estimate a fair value for the Colombian peso by comparing it with countries that share similar characteristics. By comparing the current value of the currency with this fair value, we find that the Colombian peso is overvalued relative to the fundamentals observed in other countries.

However, it is important to note that the recent depreciation of the currency, driven mainly by the government's expansionary fiscal policies, may put additional pressure on the exchange rate in the 2H2024, even in a context of less restrictive monetary policy in the United States and Europe.
In this scenario, monetary policy fundamentals may support the currency in the short term. However, the trajectory of public debt and a high fiscal deficit will gradually increase market uncertainties, leading to depreciative pressures on the currency.

Image 4: Colombian Peso Pair Model

Source: Hedgepoint, Refinitiv

Data from the trade balance also raises concerns

Image 5: Colombian Crude Oil Production (Million Barrels per Day)

Source: Bloomberg

Despite significant fiscal challenges, Colombia’s currency has performed better than some of its peers in 2024. Our econometric analysis, which decomposes volatility in emerging markets and commodity-exporting nations, enabled us to estimate a fair value for the Colombian peso by comparing it with countries that share similar characteristics. By comparing the current value of the currency with this fair value, we find that the Colombian peso is overvalued relative to the fundamentals observed in other countries.

However, it is important to note that the recent depreciation of the currency, driven mainly by the government's expansionary fiscal policies, may put additional pressure on the exchange rate in the 2H2024, even in a context of less restrictive monetary policy in the United States and Europe.
In this scenario, monetary policy fundamentals may support the currency in the short term. However, the trajectory of public debt and a high fiscal deficit will gradually increase market uncertainties, leading to depreciative pressures on the currency.

Summary

While Latin American countries like Mexico and Brazil face more pronounced depreciation of their currencies in 2024, the Colombian peso has outperformed.

This does not mean that domestic fundamentals are not concerning. The country's fiscal situation remains complex, and the drop in commodity prices, particularly oil, may pose additional challenges.

The interest rate cut in the US will provide relief to monetary authorities in various countries, including Colombia, where the interest rate differential is likely to strengthen the Colombian peso and help reduce inflation.

However, these gains may be outweighed by domestic factors that bring concern and may reduce the inflow of dollars into the country.
Written by Victor Arduin
victor.arduin@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Livea Coda
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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