
Jul 18
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Luiz Roque, Livia Coda, Laleska Moda e Carolina França
2025: First Half Review and Second Half Outlook
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In 2025, increased geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and fiscal deficits in countries such as Brazil and the US raised risk aversion and put pressure on markets. In this scenario, sugar maintains a downward bias with a robust Brazilian harvest and good global prospects; coffee, after strong volatility and record prices, retreats with the harvest approaching; and cocoa tends to fall in the face of weak demand and a partial recovery in African supply.
Macroeconomic Outlook
H1: 2025 began with rising risk aversion amid renewed US-China trade tensions and tariffs. Geopolitical risks escalated with the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, which intensified in June with US and Iran involvement. High interest rates also weighed on the semester.
H2: Geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, fueling uncertainty. Fiscal concerns persist in countries like Brazil and the US, with widening deficits and debt sustainability risks. Commodities should remain pressured by risk sentiment and high interest rates, also responding to their fundamentals.
US Treasury Bonds Behaviour in 2025

Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Macro Key Indicators (Jan 25 = 100)

Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Softs Commodities Outlook
Sugar: Brazil’s 24/25 crop was robust, 25/26 outlook is positive, and improved Northern Hemisphere prospects reinforced the bearish trend.
Coffee: Prices were highly volatile in first half of 2025, with record values in February following panic buying. However, as the Brazilian harvest approached and the perspectives in other origins are more positive, prices were pushed down.
Cocoa: After a volatile first half of 2025 marked by uncertainty over the West African crop, the cocoa market may face a bearish trend in the medium term, with potentially weaker demand and partial recovery in supply.
Softs Price Index (Jan 25 = 100)

Source: Refinitiv
Key Factors Going Forward

Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
Soybean: Large South American supply still weighs, but the reduction in area and a trend toward a smaller crop in the US should provide support. Biofuel blending in the US is a factor contributing to volatility. On the US-Chinese side, all eyes are on the government’s negotiations which could shift the market dynamics at any given time.
Corn: Strong demand for US corn provided some support for the market, but increased acreage and the trend toward a record crop and larger stocks in the US weigh on Chicago.
Wheat: Russia is facing weather issues that could impact their spring wheat crops, while Europe's wheat production is expected to be higher than last campaign, returning to normal.
Grains Price Index (Jan25 = 100)

Source: Refinitiv
Key Factors Going Forward

Special Report — Multicommodities
Written by Luiz Roque, Livia Coda, Laleska Moda e Carolina França
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thaís Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without intending to create obligations or commitments to third parties. It is not intended to promote or solicit an offer for the sale or purchase of any securities, commodities interests, or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for the use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly results in any kind of damages. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests, such as futures, options, and swaps, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgment and/or consult advisors before entering into any transactions. Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately. Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only). Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets. “HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.
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This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.