Oct 14 / Thais Italiani, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda and Carolina França

2025 Q3 Update​ and Expectations for Q4​

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Risk aversion remained high in Q3 2025, driven by global trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and fiscal concerns, while gold prices reached record highs. Looking ahead to Q4, fiscal and political uncertainties in Brazil and the US, along with pressured commodity markets, are expected to shape economic sentiment.

Macroeconomic Outlook

2025 Q3 Update: Risk aversion remains elevated amid escalating US-China trade tensions and rising tariffs, with Gold reaching record highs. Geopolitical risks persist due to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. The US Central Banck reduced interest rates for the first time in September, making the lowest level since late 2022.

2025 Q4 Expectations: A new chapter unfolds amid geopolitical conflicts, with the US mediating a ceasefire in Gaza. Fiscal concerns persist in countries such as Brazil and the US, where the government has been under shutdown since Oct 1st and election-year debates are approaching in Brazil for 2026. Commodities are expected to remain under pressure due to persistent risk sentiment and elevated interest rates, while also responding to their supply and demand fundamentals.

US Treasury Bonds Behaviour in 2025

Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint


Macro Key Indicators (Jan 25 = 100)

Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint

Softs Commodities Outlook

  • Sugar: Sugar prices have fallen sharply amid improved global supply prospects, driven by record sugar mix in Brazil and favorable conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.
  • Coffee: The coffee market and prices were greatly influenced by US tariffs on Brazilian beans and their effect on the country's stock. Reduced exports from Brazil also contributed to lower availability.   
  • Cocoa: Cocoa prices have been correcting amid expectations of a surplus for the 25/26 crop year and weaker demand.

Softs Price Index (Jan 25 = 100)

Source: LSEG

Key Factors Going Forward

Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Soybean: Lower production and stocks in the US provided some support for prices, but the lack of agreement between the US and China and the absence of Chinese purchases of US soybeans continue to put pressure on the market, preventing price increases.
Corn: Record production and the large increase in US stocks continue to weigh on the market. However, strong demand for US corn is a supporting factor.
Wheat: Large production in the European Union and Russia are expected to lead to higher exports, which increases competitiveness and puts pressure on US wheat.

Grains Price Index (Jan25 = 100)

Source: LSEG

Key Factors Going Forward

Special Report — Multicommodities

Written by Thaís Italiani, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda e Carolina França
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thaís Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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