Oct 14
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Thais Italiani, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda and Carolina França
2025 Q3 Update and Expectations for Q4
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Risk aversion remained high in Q3 2025, driven by global trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and fiscal concerns, while gold prices reached record highs. Looking ahead to Q4, fiscal and political uncertainties in Brazil and the US, along with pressured commodity markets, are expected to shape economic sentiment.
Macroeconomic Outlook
2025
Q3 Update: Risk
aversion remains elevated amid escalating US-China trade tensions and rising
tariffs, with Gold reaching record highs. Geopolitical risks persist due to the
prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. The US Central Banck reduced interest rates for
the first time in September, making the lowest level since late 2022.
2025 Q4 Expectations: A new chapter unfolds amid geopolitical conflicts, with the US mediating a ceasefire in Gaza. Fiscal concerns persist in countries such as Brazil and the US, where the government has been under shutdown since Oct 1st and election-year debates are approaching in Brazil for 2026. Commodities are expected to remain under pressure due to persistent risk sentiment and elevated interest rates, while also responding to their supply and demand fundamentals.
2025 Q4 Expectations: A new chapter unfolds amid geopolitical conflicts, with the US mediating a ceasefire in Gaza. Fiscal concerns persist in countries such as Brazil and the US, where the government has been under shutdown since Oct 1st and election-year debates are approaching in Brazil for 2026. Commodities are expected to remain under pressure due to persistent risk sentiment and elevated interest rates, while also responding to their supply and demand fundamentals.
US Treasury Bonds Behaviour in 2025
Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Macro Key Indicators (Jan 25 = 100)
Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Softs Commodities Outlook
- Sugar: Sugar prices have fallen sharply amid improved global supply prospects, driven by record sugar mix in Brazil and favorable conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.
- Coffee: The coffee market and prices were greatly influenced by US tariffs on Brazilian beans and their effect on the country's stock. Reduced exports from Brazil also contributed to lower availability.
- Cocoa: Cocoa prices have been correcting amid expectations of a surplus for the 25/26 crop year and weaker demand.
Softs Price Index (Jan 25 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
Soybean: Lower production and stocks in the US
provided some support for prices, but the lack of agreement between the US and
China and the absence of Chinese purchases of US soybeans continue to put
pressure on the market, preventing price increases.
Corn: Record production and the large increase
in US stocks continue to weigh on the market. However, strong demand for US
corn is a supporting factor.
Wheat: Large
production in the European Union and Russia are expected to lead to higher
exports, which increases competitiveness and puts pressure on US wheat.
Grains Price Index (Jan25 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
Special Report — Multicommodities
Written by Thaís Italiani, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda e Carolina França
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thaís Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
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This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.