Jul 8
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Livea Coda, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda and Carolina França
2026 Q2 Update and Expectations for Q3
Macroeconomic Outlook
2026 Q2 Update: Despite the peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, inflation continued to rise globally, while policymakers adopted a more hawkish stance, particularly at the Federal Reserve. This also contributed to a stronger U.S. dollar toward the end of the quarter.
2026 Q3 Expectations: While the ceasefire may ease pressure on oil prices and improve risk appetite, a potential increase in U.S. interest rates typically attracts capital to dollar and puts pressure on emerging market currencies. Markets and central banks should continue to closely monitor inflation trends when shaping future monetary policy decisions.
2026 Q3 Expectations: While the ceasefire may ease pressure on oil prices and improve risk appetite, a potential increase in U.S. interest rates typically attracts capital to dollar and puts pressure on emerging market currencies. Markets and central banks should continue to closely monitor inflation trends when shaping future monetary policy decisions.
Bloomberg Commodity Subindexes and DXY (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Macro Key Indicators (Jan 26 = 100)
Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Softs Commodities Outlook
- Sugar: Brazil’s strong 26/27 Center-South season (Apr-Mar) has pushed sugar prices to their lowest levels since 2020. Looking ahead, weather-related risks could tighten supply in the Northern Hemisphere during the 26/27 season (Oct-Sep), providing medium-term support to prices and boosting the white sugar premium.
- Coffee: With a record 26/27 coffee crop in Brazil, broader fundamentals are bearish. However, low stocks in destinations, harvest delays in Brazil, and potential El Niño-related disruptions in other origins are providing some support to prices.
- Cocoa: Cocoa prices remained volatile throughout the quarter. Concerns over potential El Niño impacts on both the volume and quality of the upcoming 26/27 crop have supported higher prices. However, improving certified stocks and strong port arrivals in Ivory Coast may limit sustained upward momentum.
Softs Price Index (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
Soybean: Higher biodiesel blending mandates in the U.S. provided fundamental support to prices. In addition, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran kept oil prices elevated, further boosting soybean oil prices.
Corn: Strong demand for U.S. corn remained a supportive factor. However, large crops in South America continued to weigh on the market from the supply side.
Wheat: Poor development of the U.S. winter wheat crop supported prices, which also benefited from expectations of declining global production and lower stocks in the 26/27 season.
Grains Price Index (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
Energy Outlook
- US-Iran conflict removed significant fuel volumes from the market, triggering price volatility as inventories declined and concerns over freight rates and supply security intensified across crude oil, refined products, and LNG.
- OECD and commercial oil inventories declined sharply during Q2, highlighting reduced buffers against potential future supply shocks.
- Tight product availability and refinery disruptions pushed gasoline and distillate crack spreads to exceptionally strong levels throughout Q2.
Energy Price Index (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
El Niño: a point of concern
NOAA
and IRI models estimates a 97% and 98% probability, respectively, of the
phenomenon occurring between May and July. The likelihood of it persisting
through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027 is virtually certain,
increasing climate-related risks for agricultural commodities.
In addition, the phenomenon is expected to strengthen, with more than 66% probability of reaching very strong intensity between September and November 2026.
CCSR/IRI ENSO Strength Categories (%, June, 2026)
Source: LSEG
El Niño effects in crops
Source: Hedgepoint
Higher temperatures and uneven rainfall
El Niño could alter monsoon patterns, bringing hotter and drier conditions to Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Central America.
Additionally,
it could intensify rainfall in South America and Africa, increasing the risk of
flooding, while also supporting a more active storm track across the southern
United States during the winter.
El Niño: Possible Weather Impacts (June-August)
Source: NOAA
El Niño: Possible Weather Impacts (December-February)
Source: NOAA
Special Report — Multicommodities
Written by Lívea Coda, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda and Carolina França
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thaís Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
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This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.