Oct 2
/
Livea Coda, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda and Carolina França
2026 Q3 Update and Expectations for Q4
Macroeconomic Outlook
2026 Q3: was shaped by a stronger U.S. dollar and higher real yields amid Fed policy uncertainty, alongside Middle East disruptions to oil and LNG supplies. Inflation concerns and rising costs supported agricultural commodities. Risk-off sentiment attracted speculative buying in some commodities as an inflation hedge. Meanwhile, the stronger dollar weighed on demand, acting as a counterbalance.
2026 Q4: is expected to be shaped by a more hawkish Fed, a firm U.S. dollar, and higher real yields. This should curb inflation-hedge buying and weigh on agricultural demand, while continued central bank gold purchases and potential Middle East energy disruptions could still support gold and oil prices.
Bloomberg Commodity Subindexes and DXY (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Macro Key Indicators (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Softs Commodities Outlook
- Sugar: Northern Hemisphere crop losses (EU, Thailand, India) and a wet Brazilian Center-South (CS) due to a strong El-Niño supported prices. However, weak demand continued to limit upside potential.
- Coffee: Tight destination stocks and delays in Brazil’s 26/27 harvest gave support to prices. However, as the crop start to hit the market and the weather for the 27/28 season is favorable, the bearish pressure is increasing.
- Cocoa: Price volatility remained elevated throughout the quarter. Concerns over potential El Niño impacts on both volume and quality of the upcoming 26/27 crop have supported higher prices. However, the increase in certified stocks and the upward revisions to the 25/26 crop surplus may support corrective moves and limit a sustained upward trend.
Softs Price Index (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
- Soybean: Higher biodiesel blending in the U.S. and the increase in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans supported prices. In addition, conflicts involving the U.S. and Iran, as well as Russia and Ukraine, kept oil prices elevated, providing further support to soybean oil prices.
- Corn: Strong demand for U.S. corn, combined with a smaller U.S. crop, has boosted prices. In addition, logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict provided further market support.
- Wheat: Poor development of the U.S. winter wheat crop and logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosted prices. Expectations of lower global production and tighter stocks in the 26/27 season also contributed to the bullish sentiment.
Grains Price Index (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
Energy Outlook
Crude:
Prices moderated from the wartime peak, trading in a $95–105/bbl
range by early September as some supply fears eased. Crude itself was never the
bottleneck this quarter - the constraint was downstream refining capacity.
Distillates: The Middle East conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and reduced regional refining capacity, while Russian refinery attacks prompted a diesel export ban. Together, these events tightened global refining and export capacity rather than crude supply. As a result, diesel crack spreads decoupled sharply from crude prices, setting all-time records above $100/bbl. European diesel prices also surged above pre-conflict levels, making refining margins, rather than crude prices, the key story of 2026Q3.
Distillates: The Middle East conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and reduced regional refining capacity, while Russian refinery attacks prompted a diesel export ban. Together, these events tightened global refining and export capacity rather than crude supply. As a result, diesel crack spreads decoupled sharply from crude prices, setting all-time records above $100/bbl. European diesel prices also surged above pre-conflict levels, making refining margins, rather than crude prices, the key story of 2026Q3.
Energy Price Index (Jan26 = 100)
Source: LSEG
Key Factors Going Forward
El Niño: a point of concern
The event is expected to gain force in the next two quarters, having over 77% chance of being very strong between August and October 2026, and over 90% between October and January 2027.
A very strong El Niño increases weather-related risks for agricultural commodities.
CCSR/IRI ENSO Strength Categories (%, Sep, 2026)
Source: CCSR/IRI
El Niño effects in crops
Source: Hedgepoint
Higher temperatures and uneven rainfall
El Niño could alter monsoon patterns, bringing hotter and drier conditions to Australia, Southeast Asia, northern South America and parts of Central America.
Additionally, it could intensify rainfall in southern South America and Africa, increasing the risk of flooding, while also supporting a more active storm track across the southern United States during the winter.
El Niño: Possible Weather Impacts (December-February)
Source: NOAA
Special Report — Multicommodities
Written by Lívea Coda, Luiz Roque, Laleska Moda and Carolina França
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
luiz.roque@hedgepointglobal.com
laleska.moda@hedgepointglobal.com
carolina.franca@hedgepointglobal.com
Reviewed by Thaís Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without intending to create obligations or commitments to third parties. It is not intended to promote or solicit an offer for the sale or purchase of any securities, commodities interests, or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for the use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly results in any kind of damages. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests, such as futures, options, and swaps, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgment and/or consult advisors before entering into any transactions. Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately. Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only). Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets. “HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.
Contact us
hedgepointhub.support@hedgepointglobal.com
ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com
Funchal Street, 418, 18º floor - Vila Olímpia São Paulo, SP, Brasil
Check our general terms and important notices.
This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.