Sep 12 / Alef Dias and Pedro Schicchi

Post-WASDE Monthly Report - 2023 09 12

23/24 soybean yields came right at the expected. However, ending stocks ended up above the median estimate. Why?

Although 22/23 carryover stocks were reduced, and the market nailed the yield, higher-than-expected acreage and slight trims to demand led to this outcome.

World ending stocks also came at the upper half of expectations, adding to bearish results.

Still, bullish factors were not completely absent as Chinese imports were increased by 2M and 1M ton in the 22/23 and 23/24 crop, respectively.

Agents also nailed the US yield on corn. However, acreage was also increased, but by a higher amount than on soybean. In turn, it led to US production and ending stocks surpassing the market’s estimates.

Brazil’s 22/23 production was bumped in another 2M ton and Ukraine’s in 0.5M mt, although exports were unchanged in the latter – which is also surprising given the slow export pace seen so far.

Finally, world stocks also came higher than estimates, making for a bearish report on corn, overall.

Once again, the USDA brought bullish figures on wheat, with world ending stocks coming below market’s median estimate.

Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU were the most relevant cuts, leading to a 7.2M mt trim to global supplies. With the current estimates, this will be the 1st YoY decline in world wheat production since 18/19.
It’s also worth mentioning that Russian production was unchanged – and local consultancies are pointing to a production 7M mt higher than USDA’s current estimate of 85M mt. Nonetheless, Russian exports were raised by 1M mt.

The only relevant increase in production was in Ukraine figures, with an uptick of

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Post-WASDE Monthly Report - 2023 09 12

Soybeans: Neutral / Bearish

Figure 1: US Soybean - Ending stocks (M bu)

Corn: Bearish

Figure 2: US Corn - Ending stocks (M bu)

Wheat: Bullish

Figure 3: World Wheat - Ending Stocks (M ton)

WASDE Commentary — Grains

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