As
for wheat, the USDA presented lower estimates for practically all the main
figures for the 24/25 crop, providing strong support for wheat contracts this Friday.
Starting
with the American balance, expected production for the next harvest stood
at 50.6M mt - still above last season (49.3M mt), but below the median of
market estimates (52.1M mt), reflecting the worsening of harvest conditions in
recent weeks. The USDA also made a slight adjustment to its estimates of
domestic demand and beginning stocks on the 24/25, resulting in ending stocks
that are also tighter than expected by the market - but still a little more
comfortable than in the 23/24 cycle.
Looking
at the global balance, the USDA pointed to another year of tight stocks.
In addition to cutting estimates for the 23/24 crop by 0.5M mt, the first
figure for the 24/25 crop came in almost 5M mt below the median of market
estimates. Despite expectations of growth in global production, lower carryover
stocks and increased demand have contributed to tighter stocks.
On
the global supply side, certainly the most surprising figure was Russia's
production for 24/25, estimated by the USDA at 88M mt. Although not an absurd
figure, given the adverse weather faced by Russian wheat in recent weeks, it
was certainly not expected that the agency would anticipate local consultancies, which still
work with estimates above 90M mt. Despite the smaller harvest, the American
agency still expects Russia to be very important on the global market,
exporting 52M mt in the 24/25 harvest.
More
details at: https://www.hedgepointhub.com/path-player?courseid=grain-oilseeds-and-livestock-updates&unit=65044c5e64ebb5aefb0536deUnit
