Sep 13
/
Ignacio Espinola
Post-WASDE Monthly Report - 2024 09 12
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"Comments about the results of USDA's report"
Soybeans: Neutral
World - Ending Stock (M Mt)
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Hedgepoint
The USDA projections in the September report are delivered from actual crop tours and real data samples, rather than satellite-based information, which brings us more reliable information and estimates than previous reports.
The USDA did not bring us major news on Soybeans. For the US, numbers are similar to the previous report released in August, with almost the same level of ending stocks for the country on the 23/24 crop and a small reduction of 280k Mt for 24/25. The rest of the numbers have remained almost unchanged.
On the South American side, there are not relevant updates. The USDA continues to expect Argentina with 51 Mmt and Brazil with 169 Mmt production until further news/issues/problems with the crop tell us to reduce the expectation.
This has been a neutral report for Soybeans.
Corn: Neutral-Bearish
World - Ending Stock (M Mt)
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Hedgepoint
The USDA report came with a small reduction on the corn 24/25 world stocks of 73 M bu (2 M ton) due to adjustments on China, who's imports got corrected from 905 M bu (23 M ton) into 827 M bu (21 M ton).
On the US side, there was an increase in corn productivity from 0.5 bu/acre to 183.6 bu/acre (4.7 Mt/ha), which was a surprise, as the market expectation was for a reduction up 0.2 bu/acre from the previous report (183.1 bu/acre). Another highlight was final stocks. The 23/24 harvest update brought a reduction of 1.4M tons, while the market expected a smaller cut. Regarding the new harvest, 24/25, due to the greater supply, the impact on stock was smaller, just 0.5M tons, in line with market expectations.
In South America, and as highlighted in our Pre-WASDE report, we did not have market estimates, which made it difficult to generate any expectations based on the opinion of other players and participants. That said, this report came unchanged for Brazil and Argentina, with 127M ton and 51M ton of 24/25 production, respectively.
In short, this was a neutral/slightly bearish report for corn due to the increased yield reading in the US and lower appetite in China.
Wheat: Neutral
World - Ending Stock (M Mt)
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Hedgepoint
As expected, the USDA did not bring much news to wheat. On the US side, 24/25 ending stocks were maintained at 22.5M tons. On the world final stocks side, WASDE brought an adjustment of -0.6M ton, leaving the final number at 257.2M ton.
All eyes are still on Europe, where concern remains over poor French and German harvests, while we hope to find more clarity on Black Sea harvests as well. However, the picture does not look good for the European continent.
To conclude, this was a neutral to slightly bullish report for wheat as we await confirmation of European harvest estimates.
Revised by Thais Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com
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