Oct 11 / Ignacio Espinola

Post-WASDE Monthly Report - 2024 10 11

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"Comments about the results of USDA's report"

CORN - Bearish

U.S.- Ending Stock (M bu)

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Hedgepoint
This month WASDE report brought us some adjustments on US Corn where it seems that recent weather events have not affected the production yield. The report adjusted the previous production of 385.7 to 386.2 M mt leading into a new bearish trend in Chicago.

On the South American side, the report adjusted the initial stock 24/25 in Brazil by 1 M mt and in Argentina for 2.5 M mt, due to a reduction in the export numbers. On the Ukraine side, there was a reduction on the production number from 27.2 M mt to 26.2 M mt due to bad weather in that area.

Finally, for China the report has decreased in 2 M mt the import number from 21 to 19 M mt – another bearish aspect for the market and this time coming from demand.






SOYBEAN- Neutral

World - Ending Stock (M Mt)

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Hedgepoint

On the soybeans side, there were almost no changes on this report. Some adjustments were expected on the production side for US but it does seem like the USDA considers it relevant. On the other countries, not much has changed leaving a neutral report. 

Wheat: Neutral

U.S. - Ending Stock (Mbu)

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Hedgepoint
On the wheat side, the report has adjusted the US, EU and the Brazil numbers.

On the US side, the report adjusted the yield from 52.2 bu/acre into 51.2 bu/acre, a 2% reduction and it has increased the import number from 105 Mbu to 115 Mbu, a 9.5% increase. On the European Union, the October numbers are showing a reduction versus September on the export numbers of 1.5 M mt, leaving a final export number at 30 M mt. Also, the ending stock number got adjusted to 10.41 M mt which is 29% lower versus last year 14.46 M mt.

Finally, the report has reduced Brazil’s production from 9.5 M mt to 9 M mt and increased the country’ s import by 0.5 M mt to 6 M mt.


Written by Ignacio Espinola
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com

Revised by Thais Italiani
thais.italiani@hedgepointglobal.com

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