
US tariffs impacts on sugar are mostly indirect
"Last week was marked by the anticipation and aftermath of Trump's "Liberation Day." Market expectations regarding the US tariff announcement disrupted the support sugar prices received from India’s poor March. The new tariffs had minimal impact on sugar trade flow, with Canada and Mexico exempt and TRQ quotas expected to start paying new duties – although the latter remains rather uncertain as the program was not explicitly mentioned. Concerns about a potential US recession and higher inflation are pressuring the dollar, boosting other currencies' purchasing power. "
US tariffs impacts on sugar are indirect
- Last week was dominated by the anticipation and aftermath of Trump's "Liberation Day"
- Market expectations regarding the US tariff announcement disrupted the support sugar found on poor March crushing figures from India, leading to higher volatility, and causing sugar prices to drop nearly 2.5% by Thursday.
- By the end of Friday, sugar closed at 18.84c/lb, with a strong support level coming from Chinese import arbitrage.
- The new tariffs had minimal impact on sugar trade flow, with Canada and Mexico exempt and TRQ quotas expected to start paying new duties, boosting Mexico's advantage.
- Concerns about a potential US recession and higher inflation are pressuring the dollar, boosting other currencies' purchasing power, while the new Brazilian crop is approaching, promising to ease short-term availability pressure and limit price increases.
Last week was all about the anticipation and aftermath of Trump's "Liberation Day“. Traders were cautious, and we saw a modest recovery in sugar prices on Tuesday after India's sluggish March crushing results. However, this support was disrupted by market expectations regarding the US tariff announcement, leading to greater volatility in the markets that were still open on Wednesday, such as the energy and currency markets, and impacting sugar prices on Thursday.
By the end of Thursday, crude oil had dropped over 7%, accompanied by a downward trend in the US dollar and global equities. The BRL and other currencies appreciated compared to the dollar index, while sugar took a significant hit, dropping nearly 2.5% during the session. By the end of Friday, sugar closed at 18.84c/lb. It's important to note that sugar has a strong support level due to Chinese import arbitrage. As prices approached 18.7 c/lb, there might have been some import arbitrage opening in non-producing regions, aiding sugar not to fall further.
Image 1: Commodities Weekly Variation Index ( Mar 31 = 100)

Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
Image 2: Usually Mexico Acconts for Most of US imports

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Image 3: Currencies Weekly Variation Index ( Mar 31 = 100)

Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
Image 4: US: New Tarrifs – Sugar Market

Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
In Summary
Weekly Report — Sugar
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