
Is there a way up?
"Last week, the sugar market experienced significant volatility due to the escalation of the "Liberation Day" outcomes, which sparked fears of recession and supply chain disruptions. The devaluation of the BRL further contributed to bearish fundamentals, including the anticipated increase in availability from the new Center-South crop, leading to a drop in sugar prices. Despite a mid-week market bounce from tariff adjustments, the short-term outlook for sugar remained negative. "
Is there a way up?
- Tariffs led to a cautious market, with fears of recession and supply chain disruptions impacting key sectors, including energy. Sugar faced significant losses, with the addition of bearish fundamentals and BRL devaluation.
- Tariff escalation triggered a market bounce on Wednesday, but sugar showed only slight improvement, maintaining a bearish outlook.
- Sugar closed the week with a 4% loss at 18 c/lb, amid uncertainty and caution.
- Chinese import arbitrage opened but didn't support sugar prices, possibly due to tariff issues, economic slowdown and higher domestic availability.
- China's potential increase in imports might support sugar prices.
- The end of La Niña could benefit the Northern Hemisphere’s 25/26 crop development.
Last week began with the aftereffects of the first round of tariffs, leading to a cautious market environment. Fears of recession and supply chain disruptions impacted key sectors, including the energy complex. Sugar, in particular, experienced significant losses. On the macro framework, the week started acting against any sugar price recovery. The devaluation of the BRL, following a strong recovery in the USD, typically signals a selling opportunity for Brazilian producers, further contributed to the already bearish fundamentals. The sweetener currently faces the approach of the new Center-South crop, increasing short-term availability, amid a slow-paced demand. Consequently, it was not surprising to see raw sugar closing on Tuesday at 18.3 cents per pound.
Image 1: Commodities Weekly Variation Index ( Appril 7 = 100)

Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
Image 2: BRL x Sugar (c/lb)

Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
Image 3: Chinese Estimated Historical Average (USD/t)

Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
Image 4: Center-South Estimated Cumulativa Rainfall (mm)

Source: Bloomberg, Hedgepoint
Image 5: Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities (March 2025)

Source: NOAA, Hedgepoint
In Summary
Weekly Report — Sugar
livea.coda@hedgepointglobal.com
ignacio.espinola@hedgepointglobal.com
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