
A sluggish start, but a bearish sentiment
"Last week, the sugar market experienced a mix of stability and volatility. While macroeconomic optimism from U.S.–China tariff reductions initially penalized the sweetener, sugar prices were supported early in the week. UNICA’s April data revealed weaker crushing due to weather-related disruptions, briefly lifting prices. However, bearish sentiment returned during Sugar Week, reinforced by Thailand’s B-quota tender and expectations of a surplus year. As the new week begins, attention turns to the upcoming UNICA report for May, which could offer clearer signals on the crop’s trajectory."
A sluggish start, but a bearish sentiment
- Sugar prices dipped on Monday following a stronger dollar and broader commodity corrections after U.S.–China tariff easing.
- Center-South’s data showed disrupted cane crushing and poorer yields, pushing raw sugar prices up nearly 3% on Tuesday (13).
- Despite short-term supply concerns, market consensus leans toward a surplus year in 25/26, pushed by a healthy participation from Center-South, weighing on prices.
- Completion of the 2024/25 Thailand’s B-quota tender could be ambiguous. While its success points to existing demand, Thai producers might have ceased to expect better selling prices.
- The next UNICA report for May’s first half is critical, with early signs pointing to little rain disruptions and a potential better result compared to April’s second fortnight.
Last week, the market experienced a period of relative stability, largely influenced by trader’s widespread participation in events held in New York. On the macroeconomic front, optimism returned as U.S.-China negotiations over the weekend led to a 90-day tariff reduction agreement. The U.S. committed to lowering tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China reciprocated by cutting its levies from 125% to 10%. This diplomatic breakthrough strengthened the dollar index, triggering a wave of corrections across commodity markets — and sugar was no exception, giving back some of its previous gains yet on Monday (12).
Image 1: Dollar Index vs Sugar (c/lb)

Source: Refiniv, Hedgepoint
Image 2: Estimated Lost Days of Crushing per Fortnight (No. of Days)

Source: Bloomberg, Hedgepoint
Image 3: Weekly Vegetation Health Index in CS Cane Areas

Source: NOAA, Hedgepoint
Image 4: Expected Cane Crushing Curve (Mt)

Source: UNICA, Hedgepoint
In Summary
Weekly Report — Sugar
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