
A tour around the Northern Hemisphere’s preliminary estimates
"Despite the movement in the market this week, it is also important to keep in mind the recent changes in expectations regarding the Northern Hemisphere. Tracking how these figures evolve could prove insightful, especially considering the Q4/25 and Q1/26. Our analysis will cover Europe, India, the US, China, and Thailand."
A tour around the Northern Hemisphere’s preliminary estimates
- Sugar prices fell at the beginning of the week due to weak demand and Indian crop expectations. However, the raw contracts recovered 2% on July 24 amid physical market rumors.
- Europe expects a 10% drop in beet area, with production falling by 1.4Mt in 2025/26, increasing import needs despite good crop development.
- U.S. sugar output may slightly decline, driven by lower beet yields, while Louisiana cane area continues to expand for the sixth year.
- India’s production is set to recover to ~32Mt, supported by strong monsoon and crop conditions; exports remain uncertain.
- Thailand’s output rebounds to 10.1Mt, with potential to reach 11.5Mt in 2025/26 and boost exports above 8Mt.
- China maintains strong production (~11.2Mt) and uses stock levels to time imports strategically, taking advantage of recent price dips.
SSugar prices failed to sustain the gains seen in the previous week and started Monday, July 21, on a bearish trend. The lack of significant movement in demand, coupled with expectations of a robust harvest in India in next season, put pressure on raw sugar prices, with the September contract closing Wednesday at 16.24 c/lb. However, part of these losses were reversed on Thursday (24), driven by rumors of increased demand in the physical market. As a result, the sweetener rose 2%, closing the day at 16.57 c/lb.
Despite the movement in the market this week, it is also important to keep in mind the recent changes in expectations regarding the Northern Hemisphere. Tracking how these figures evolve could prove insightful, especially considering the Q4/25 and Q1/26. Our analysis will cover Europe, India, the US, China, and Thailand.
EU+UK Estimated Imports (Total Sugar – ‘000t)

Source: EC, Hedgepoint
EU 27+UK Area x Yield

Source: : EC, Green Pool, Hedgepoint
Despite some weather concerns during the spring, beet development has reportedly progressed well, with expectations of yield improvement. Nevertheless, overall production is still forecasted to decline year-over-year. Our outlook for the EU+UK points to an early drop of 1.4 million tons by 25/26, which will likely increase the region’s import needs.
US (left) and India (right) Sugar Balances – Oct Sep

Source: USDA, ISMA, AISTA, ChiniMandi, NFCSF, Hedgepoint
Thailand Precipitation Anomaly in mm (June – left; July* – center and August expectation - right)

Source: Thai Meteorological Department
Although there are some concerns about weather conditions in Thailand, particularly in the central region, production is expected to continue improving. From the 8.8Mt produced in 23/24, the current season has already added over 1Mt, reaching 10.1Mt. Looking ahead to 25/26, the recovery trend is likely to persist, especially given the favorable weather in the northern and eastern regions. We project that Thailand could reach close to 11.5Mt in production and increase its exports to over 8Mt.
In Summary
Weekly Report — Sugar
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