Sugar fundamentals were already bearish considering Brazilian crop updates released by many houses in the week prior (ours included), but the headline that India might produce more of the sweetener instead of pursuing its ethanol blending target was all the market needed to melt down.
The Indian government announced last Wednesday (12/06) that it is considering taking some measures to discourage the redirection of sugar for ethanol production, aiming to smooth the sweetener's domestic market tightness and stocks. It would basically consist in restricting the use of sugar cane juice and B-heavy molasses to produce ethanol, allowing only the use of C-heavy molasses, a by-product with lower sucrose content. This measure became official the day after, with prices failing to recover to above 24 c/lb.
![](https://lwfiles.mycourse.app/649cb3acac2c0641db4c86b2-public/8608902e198e4ae36b2926e62a4c557f.png)
Source: Refinitiv, hEDGEpoint
But what can these changes mean to the sugar global market?
In terms of trade flows, nothing. As the government is taking action to build up stocks and prevent any import necessity, it seems rather unlikely for them to allow exports any time soon. But the global balance’s deficit might simply disappear.